The main objective of the paper was comparative analyses of natural gas quantities delivered through the existing pipeline capacities in the last decade and new pipeline capacities for the prediction of possible future flows of gas import to Europe. Changes in physical flows have been influenced by European energy strategies that became green oriented resulting with a high amount of non-utilized transmission capacities. The research findings have shown that there is a significant decrease observed in transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in 2020 than previously. Concerning the high increase of LNG import to Europe in the same year, the start of operation of TurkStream, planned start of operation of Nord stream 2, authors project the gradual decrease of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine until the year 2025 with the total stop of transit of Russian gas until the year 2030. The change of supply routes will be also under the economic influence of low gas prices and coal and gas fuel switch until 2030 in the West EU, and after 2030 in the South Eastern European region. In the short-term period transit system for natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will be necessary for supplementing coal with natural gas in the energy mix.
This paper analyzes the possible role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the region in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by replacing a certain part of solid fossil fuels. Increasing natural gas consumption, declining North Sea natural gas reserves and increased natural gas production costs in Europe combined have created new opportunities for LNG in Europe. The Energy Strategy of Croatia is focused on intensifying the transit position for natural gas that could establish Croatia as a primary LNG market for countries from the region, which shows that the Energy Strategy supports LNG. Concerning LNG’s introduction into the regional gas market, this paper analyses the possibility of establishing a regional gas hub. The region in this paper includes the following countries: Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Slovenia, and North Macedonia. On the other hand, the observed markets are not organized and sufficiently liquid, which is a crucial precondition for hub establishment. In order to decrease the region’s dependence on pipeline natural gas, it is necessary to construct gas interconnections between Croatia – Serbia, Croatia – Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia – North Macedonia. With the mentioned interconnections, the region could achieve greater security of natural gas supply. This paper discusses the possibility of utilizing the full capacity of a LNG terminal as a source of natural gas supply for the purpose of replacing solid fossil fuels in the region’s primary energy consumption. By replacing solid fossil fuels with natural gas, it is possible to achieve significant savings on CO2 emissions, which contributes towards a green and sustainable future.
The Network Code on Gas Balancing of Transmission Networks stimulates the development of the wholesale gas market by encouraging balance responsible parties to use standardized balancing mechanisms. To balance their portfolios, balance responsible parties can use renominations of quantities at entry and exit points, trade on a virtual trading point or trade on a trading platform. In the event of a system imbalance, Plinacro, as the operator of the gas transmission system in the Republic of Croatia, activates the balancing energy to return the system within acceptable limits. In accordance with the Rules on the Organization of the Gas Market, the Croatian Energy Market Operator performs a monthly calculation of the daily imbalance charge, trades conducted on the trading platform for balancing activities, a neutrality charge and a charge for deviation from the nominated quantities which have been analysed in this paper based on the case study of a chosen balancing group. The analyses conducted in the paper have shown that the balance responsible party may be entitled to compensation or be liable to pay compensation based on the monthly calculation of the Croatian Energy Market Operator, HROTE, depending on the value of each charge. Plinacro as the forecasting party is preparing a new model for the allocation of gas quantities that will affect the operations of gas suppliers, DSOs and especially BRPs. Based on this analysis, it could be concluded that more accurate estimated consumption for a balancing group leads to cost optimization and a more transparent gas market.
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