The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management.

We investigate Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis recruitment success relative to the variability of oceanographic conditions in Senegalese waters using generalized additive models (GAM). Results show that recruitment of both species is marked by a strong intra‐annual (seasonal) variation with minimum and maximum in winter and summer, respectively. Their interannual variations are synchronous until 2006 (recruitment decreasing), while from 2007 there is no synchrony. The model developed shows that sardinella recruitment variability is closely related to the tested environmental variables in the study area. However, the key environmental variables influencing the recruitment success are different for both species: the Coastal Upwelling Index and the sea surface temperature for S. aurita and S. maderensis, respectively. We report that recruitment success of S. aurita and S. maderensis are associated with distinct ranges of sea surface temperature, upwelling intensity, wind‐induced turbulence, concentration of chlorophyll‐a and north Atlantic oscillation index. Considering food security and socio‐economic importance of both stocks, we recommend that consideration is given to the environmental variability in the small pelagic fish national management plans, particularly in the context of climate change.

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