El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake occurred on 4 April 2010 in northeastern Baja California just south of the U.S.-Mexico border. The earthquake ruptured several previously mapped faults, as well as some unidentified ones, including the Pescadores, Borrego, Paso Inferior and Paso Superior faults in the Sierra Cucapah, and the Indiviso fault in the Mexicali Valley and Colorado River Delta. We conducted several Global Positioning System (GPS) campaign surveys of preexisting and newly established benchmarks within 30 km of the earthquake rupture. Most of the benchmarks were occupied within days after the earthquake, allowing us to capture the very early postseismic transient motions. The GPS data show postseismic displacements in the same direction as the coseismic displacements; time series indicate a gradual decay in postseismic velocities with characteristic time scales of 66 ± 9 days and 20 ± 3 days, assuming exponential and logarithmic decay, respectively. We also analyzed interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from the Envisat and ALOS satellites. The main deformation features seen in the line-of-sight displacement maps indicate subsidence concentrated in the southern and northern parts of the main rupture, in particular at the Indiviso fault, at the Laguna Salada basin, and at the Paso Superior fault. We show that the near-field GPS and InSAR observations over a time period of 5 months after the earthquake can be explained by a combination of afterslip, fault zone contraction, and a possible minor contribution of poroelastic rebound. Far-field data require an additional mechanism, most likely viscoelastic relaxation in the ductile substrate.

Seismogenic regions within some geographic area are interrelated through tectonics and seismic history, although this relation is usually complex, so that seismicity in a given region cannot be predicted in a straightforward manner from the activity in other region(s). We present a new statistical method for seismic hazard evaluation based on modeling the transition probabilities of seismicity patterns in the regions of a geographic area during a time interval, as a Markov chain. Application of the method to the Japan area renders good results, considering the occurrence of a high probability transition as a successful forecast. For magnitudes M ! 5:5 and time intervals D t ¼ 0:10 year, the method yields a 78% aftcast (forecast of data already used to evaluate the hazard) success rate for the entire catalog, and an indicative 80% forecast success rate for the last 10 transitions in the catalog. A byproduct of the method, regional occurrence probabilities determined from the transition probabilities, also provides good results; aftcasts of regional activity have a 98% success rate, and those of activity in the highest probability region about 80.5% success rate. All results are superior to those from the null hypotheses (a memory-less Poissonian, fixed-rate, or uniform system) and have vanishingly small probabilities of resulting from purely random guessing.

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Previous works have shown that ground deformation and seismicity in the Cerro Prieto geothermal field (CPGF) are due to both tectonics and field exploitation. Here, we use information about current tectonics and data from precision leveling surveys, to model tectonic and anthropogenic subsidence. Our results show that tectonic subsidence constitutes only $4% of the measured subsidence. Anthropogenic subsidence was evaluated using a model of rectangular tensional cracks, based on the hydrological model of the field, together with the Coulomb 2.0 program. From the resulting values of the fissure parameters and from extraction and injection data, we calculate that the volume changes caused by closure of the geothermal and cold water reservoirs account for only $3% and $7%, respectively, of the volume change which should occur due to extraction. Since 18% of the extracted fluids are reinjected, external recharge must compensate for about 72% of the expected volume reduction. An analysis of the changes in Coulomb stress caused by exploitation of the geothermal field suggest that even though the anthropogenic stresses account for only a fraction of tectonic stresses, they are large enough to trigger seismicity.

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