Yellow rust is a devastating wheat disease. Since 2000, Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici strains PstS1 and PstS2 have become adapted to high temperatures and have spread worldwide. By 2011, Warrior strains had invaded both warm and cold areas of Europe. This study questioned whether thermal aptitude promoted the spread of Warrior strains, similar to PstS1/PstS2, by comparing infection efficiency (IE) at five temperatures and latent period (LP) under warm and cold regimes for Warrior isolates and pre‐2011 reference strains on two susceptible wheat varieties. The Warrior isolates showed a range of IE and LP responses to temperature that was intermediate between the northern reference isolates adapted to cold conditions and both the southern and invasive PstS2 isolates adapted to warm conditions. Warrior isolates had the highest IE under optimal temperatures of 10 and 15 °C, and displayed reduced infectivity under the warmest (20 °C) and coldest (5 °C) temperatures. Warrior strains acted as thermal generalists and the reference isolates acted as specialists. An IE thermal response was used to simulate the development of each isolate under future climate scenarios in a temperate and Mediterranean region. Isolates had the same ranking for yearly IE over the three 30‐year periods (1971–2000, 2021–2050, 2071–2100) and both locations, with a slight infection increase in the future. However, in the future IEs increased in earlier months. The thermal generalist profile of Warrior isolates for IE was confirmed, with an intermediate capacity to tolerate warming climate, whereas the southern isolates are better adapted to warm conditions, but do not have the virulences necessary to develop on current varieties.

Invasions of new races can have contrasting consequences on populations of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, causing yellow rust of wheat. For example, the emergence of PstS7 (Warrior race) had major impacts in Europe and in France. By contrast, PstS2 had no impact in France, while it significantly affected other parts of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand factors that govern the success of an invasive race, taking the contrasting history of PstS7 and PstS2 in France as a case study. We compared these two races for three key factors driving invasive potential: (a) virulence against local cultivars, (b) aggressiveness in local environmental conditions, and (c) competitiveness against local races. During the period when PstS2 was detected, 70% of the grown wheat area was protected against this race by at least one known Yr resistance gene. By contrast, we found that only 15% of the wheat area had a low risk of infection by PstS7. In planta competition experiments suggested a higher competitiveness of PstS7 against local isolates compared to PstS2 in optimal thermal conditions. In silico experiments, based on thermal performance curves, suggested a high competitiveness of PstS7 considering infection efficiency. PstS2 was extremely competitive against local races in all considered environments (20 French sites × 15 years) due to its short latency period. Our findings highlight the importance of considering adaptation to environmental conditions, particularly temperature, in addition to virulence spectrum, in order to understand the evolutionary trajectories of emerging strains in pathogen populations.