BackgroundVarious prediction models have been developed to predict the risk of kidney failure in patients with CKD. However, guideline-recommended models have yet to be compared head to head, their validation in patients with advanced CKD is lacking, and most do not account for competing risks.MethodsTo externally validate 11 existing models of kidney failure, taking the competing risk of death into account, we included patients with advanced CKD from two large cohorts: the European Quality Study (EQUAL), an ongoing European prospective, multicenter cohort study of older patients with advanced CKD, and the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR), an ongoing registry of nephrology-referred patients with CKD in Sweden. The outcome of the models was kidney failure (defined as RRT-treated ESKD). We assessed model performance with discrimination and calibration.ResultsThe study included 1580 patients from EQUAL and 13,489 patients from SRR. The average c statistic over the 11 validated models was 0.74 in EQUAL and 0.80 in SRR, compared with 0.89 in previous validations. Most models with longer prediction horizons overestimated the risk of kidney failure considerably. The 5-year Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) overpredicted risk by 10%–18%. The four- and eight-variable 2-year KFRE and the 4-year Grams model showed excellent calibration and good discrimination in both cohorts.ConclusionsSome existing models can accurately predict kidney failure in patients with advanced CKD. KFRE performed well for a shorter time frame (2 years), despite not accounting for competing events. Models predicting over a longer time frame (5 years) overestimated risk because of the competing risk of death. The Grams model, which accounts for the latter, is suitable for longer-term predictions (4 years).
Women in secondary care with an incident eGFR ≤20 mL/min/1.73 m2 reported a higher symptom burden, while their clinical state was considered similar or even more favourable as compared with men.
Background Cohort studies are among the most robust of observational studies but have issues with external validity. This study assesses threats to external validity (generalisability) in the European QUALity (EQUAL) study, a cohort study of people over 65 years with stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease. Methods Patients meeting the EQUAL inclusion criteria were identified in The Health Improvement Network database and stratified into those attending renal units (secondary care cohort-SCC) and not (primary care cohort-PCC). Survival, progression to renal replacement therapy (RRT), and hospitalisation were compared. Results The analysis included 250, 633, and 2,464 patients in EQUAL, PCC, and SCC. EQUAL had a higher proportion of men in comparison to PCC and SCC (60.0% vs. 34.8% vs. 51.4%). Increasing age (≥85 years odds ratio (OR) 0.25 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15-0.40)) and comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 4 OR 0.69 (CI 0.52-0.91)) were associated with non-participation in EQUAL. EQUAL had a higher proportion of patients starting RRT at 1 year compared to SCC (8.1% vs. 2.1%%, p < 0.001). Patients in the PCC and SCC had increased risk of Hospitalisation (incidence rate ratio=1.76 (95% CI 1.27-2.47) & 2.13 (95% CI 1.59-2.86)) and mortality at one year (hazard ratio=3.48 (95% CI 2.1-5.7) & 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.7)) compared to EQUAL. Conclusions This study provides evidence of how participants in a cohort study can differ from the broader population of patients, which is essential when considering external validity and applying to local practice.
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