In the drought-prone Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin of Ethiopia, soil erosion by water results in significant consequences that also affect downstream countries. However, there have been limited comprehensive studies of this and other basins with diverse agroecologies. We analyzed the variability of gross soil loss and sediment yield rates under present and expected future conditions using a newly devised methodological framework. The results showed that the basin generates an average soil loss rate of 27.5thayr and a gross soil loss of ca. 473Mtyr, of which, at least 10% comes from gully erosion and 26.7% leaves Ethiopia. In a factor analysis, variation in agroecology (average factor score=1.32) and slope (1.28) were the two factors most responsible for this high spatial variability. About 39% of the basin area is experiencing severe to very severe (>30thayr) soil erosion risk, which is strongly linked to population density. Severe or very severe soil erosion affects the largest proportion of land in three subbasins of the UBNR basin: Blue Nile 4 (53.9%), Blue Nile 3 (45.1%), and Jema Shet (42.5%). If appropriate soil and water conservation practices targeted ca. 77.3% of the area with moderate to severe erosion (>15thayr), the total soil loss from the basin could be reduced by ca. 52%. Our methodological framework identified the potential risk for soil erosion in large-scale zones, and with a more sophisticated model and input data of higher spatial and temporal resolution, results could be specified locally within these risk zones. Accurate assessment of soil erosion in the UBNR basin would support sustainable use of the basin's land resources and possibly open up prospects for cooperation in the Eastern Nile region.

This paper reviews Ethiopia’s experience and research progress in past soil and water conservation (SWC) efforts and suggests possible solutions for improvement. Although indigenous SWC techniques date back to 400 BC, institutionalized SWC activity in Ethiopia became significant only after the 1970s. At least six national SWC-related programs have been initiated since the 1970s and their focus over time has shifted from food relief to land conservation and then to livelihoods. The overall current soil erosion rates are highly variable and large by international standards, and sheet, rill, and gully erosion are the dominant processes. The influence of human activities on the landscape has traditionally been deleterious, but this trend seems to have recently reversed in some parts of the country following the engagement of the communities in land management. The efficiency of SWC measures show mixed results that are influenced by the type of measures and the agro-ecology under which they were implemented; in general, the relative performance of the interventions is better in the drylands as compared with humid areas. Methodological limitations also occur when addressing the economic aspects related to benefits of ecosystem services and other externalities. Although farmers have shown an increased understanding of the soil erosion problem, SWC efforts face a host of barriers related to limited access to capital, limited benefits, land tenure insecurity, limited technology choices and technical support, and poor community participation. In general SWC research in Ethiopia is fragmented and not comprehensive, mainly because of a lack of participatory research, field observations, and adoptable methods to evaluate impacts. A potentially feasible approach to expand and sustain SWC programs is to attract benefits from global carbon markets. Moreover, a dedicated institution responsible for overseeing the research–extension linkage of SWC interventions of the country should be established.

Models accurately representing the underlying hydrological processes and sediment dynamics in the Nile Basin are necessary for optimum use of water resources. Previous research in the Abay (Blue Nile) has indicated that direct runoff is generated either from saturated areas at the lower portions of the hillslopes or from areas of exposed bedrock. Thus, models that are based on infiltration excess processes are not appropriate. Furthermore, many of these same models are developed for temperate climates and might not be suitable for monsoonal climates with distinct dry periods in the Nile Basin. The objective of this study is to develop simple hydrology and erosion models using saturation excess runoff principles and interflow processes appropriate for a monsoonal climate and a mountainous landscape. We developed a hydrology model using a water balance approach by dividing the landscape into variable saturated areas, exposed rock and hillslopes. Water balance models have been shown to simulate river flows well at intervals of 5 days or longer when the main runoff mechanism is saturation excess. The hydrology model was developed and coupled with an erosion model using available precipitation and potential evaporation data and a minimum of calibration parameters. This model was applied to the Blue Nile. The model predicts direct runoff from saturated areas and impermeable areas (such as bedrock outcrops) and subsurface flow from the remainder of the hillslopes. The ratio of direct runoff to total flow is used to predict the sediment concentration by assuming that only the direct runoff is responsible for the sediment load in the stream. There is reasonable agreement between the model predictions and the 10-day observed discharge and sediment concentration at the gauging station on Blue Nile upstream of Rosaries Dam at the Ethiopia-Sudan border

This study presents a simple rainfall-discharge analysis for the Andit Tid, Anjeni, and Maybar watersheds of northern Ethiopia. The Soil Conservation Research Programme (SCRP) established monitoring stations in each of these sites during the 1980s, with climate and stream flow measurements being recorded up to the present. To show how these data could be used to provide insight into catchmentlevel runoff mechanisms, simple linear relationships between effective precipitation and runoff are developed for each watershed, with the conclusion that all three watersheds exhibit consistent hydrologic behaviour after approximately 500 mm of cumulative effective seasonal rainfall has fallen since the beginning of season. After the 500 mm rainfall threshold is reached, approximately 50% of any further precipitation on these watersheds will directly contribute to catchment runoff.

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