Low body mass index (BMI) is a well-documented risk factor for future fracture. The aim of this study was to quantify this effect and to explore the association of BMI with fracture risk in relation to age, gender and bone mineral density (BMD) from an international perspective using worldwide data. We studied individual participant data from almost 60,000 men and women from 12 prospective population-based cohorts comprising Rotterdam, EVOS/EPOS, CaMos, Rochester, Sheffield, Dubbo, EPIDOS, OFELY, Kuopio, Hiroshima, and two cohorts from Gothenburg, with a total follow-up of over 250,000 person years. The effects of BMI, BMD, age and gender on the risk of any fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using a Poisson regression model in each cohort separately. The results of the different studies were then merged. Without information on BMD, the age-adjusted risk for any type of fracture increased significantly with lower BMI. Overall, the risk ratio (RR) per unit higher BMI was 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99) for any fracture, 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96-0.98) for osteoporotic fracture and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.91-0.94) for hip fracture (all p <0.001). The RR per unit change in BMI was very similar in men and women ( p >0.30). After adjusting for BMD, these RR became 1 for any fracture or osteoporotic fracture and 0.98 for hip fracture (significant in women). The gradient of fracture risk without adjustment for BMD was not linearly distributed across values for BMI. Instead, the contribution to fracture risk was much more marked at low values of BMI than at values above the median. This nonlinear relation of risk with BMI was most evident for hip fracture risk. When compared with a BMI of 25 kg/m(2), a BMI of 20 kg/m(2) was associated with a nearly twofold increase in risk ratio (RR=1.95; 95% CI, 1.71-2.22) for hip fracture. In contrast, a BMI of 30 kg/m(2), when compared with a BMI of 25 kg/m(2), was associated with only a 17% reduction in hip fracture risk (RR=0.83; 95% CI, 0.69-0.99). We conclude that low BMI confers a risk of substantial importance for all fractures that is largely independent of age and sex, but dependent on BMD. The significance of BMI as a risk factor varies according to the level of BMI. Its validation on an international basis permits the use of this risk factor in case-finding strategies.

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We assessed a method for the measurement of ultrasound velocity in cortical bone of the human tibia using a probe designed to minimize the effects of surrounding soft tissues. Of four different measurement values, the maximum velocity (average of the five highest readings) gave the lowest errors of reproducibility in relation to the population variance (standardized coefficient of variation = 1.8%). The maximum velocity varied according to the tibial site measured and for practical reasons the mid-tibial site was chosen for further study. The short-term intra- and inter-observer reproducibilities (coefficients of variation) were 0.35% (n = 22) and 0.50% (n = 27) respectively. Long-term reproducibility over 4 months in 31 subjects was 0.68%. There was no significant difference in maximum ultrasound velocity between the dominant and nondominant tibia in 78 women (3764 +/- 209 vs 3763 +/- 199 m/s). Tibial ultrasound velocity was significantly higher in 73 premenopausal women (3999 +/- 102 m/s) than in 129 women referred for assessment of postmenopausal osteoporosis (3780 +/- 168 m/s), 26 women with steroid-induced osteoporosis (3790 +/- 188 m/s) and 4 women with hyperparathyroidism (3575 +/- 261 m/s). In premenopausal women, ultrasound velocity did not correlate significantly with age, height, weight or body mass index. In women with postmenopausal osteoporosis, ultrasound velocity decreased with age after the menopause (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001) and body weight exerted a weaker protective effect. The apparent annual decrease in velocity with age in postmenopausal osteoporosis (8.5 m/s) was comparable to the error of reproducibility. We conclude that the technique for measuring tibial ultrasound velocity is highly reproducible in relation to the distribution of values in the population and is sensitive to age- and osteoporosis-induced changes in bone. Further studies are required to examine its relationship to other indices of skeletal status to determine the biological and clinical relevance of the technique.

Although falls are not included as an input variable, FRAX captures a component of risk for future falls and outperforms falls history with an extended follow-up time.