Change in self-reported physical function was examined using baseline and 5 years of follow-up data between 1982 and 1991 from the four Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly studies. In East Boston, Massachusetts (n = 3,809), Iowa and Washington Counties, Iowa (n = 3,673), New Haven, Connecticut (n = 2,812), and North Carolina (n = 4,163), noninstitutionalized persons aged 65 years and older were asked a series of questions to assess their physical function: a modified Katz Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, three items from the Rosow-Breslau Functional Health Scale, and questions on physical performance, adapted from Nagi, as well as information on demographic, social, and health characteristics. Longitudinal statistical analyses (random effects and Markov transition models) were used to evaluate improvement, stability, and deterioration in functional ability at both an individual and a population level over multiple years of data. The average decline in physical function associated with age was found to be greater than previous cross-sectional studies have suggested, and the rate of decline increased with increasing age. Considerable individual variation was evident. Although many people experienced declines, a smaller but substantial portion experienced recovery. Women reported a greater rate of decline in physical function and were less likely to recover from disability.

The effect of smoking and physical activity on active and disabled life expectancy was estimated using data from the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly (EPESE). Population-based samples of persons aged > or = 65 years from the East Boston, Massachusetts, New Haven, Connecticut, and Iowa sites of the EPESE were assessed at baseline between 1981 and 1983 and followed for mortality and disability over six annual follow-ups. A total of 8,604 persons without disability at baseline were classified as "ever" or "never" smokers and doing "low," "moderate," or "high" level physical activity. Active and disabled life expectancies were estimated using a Markov chain model. Compared with smokers, men and women nonsmokers survived 1.6-3.9 and 1.6-3.6 years longer, respectively, depending on level of physical activity. When smokers were disabled and close to death, most nonsmokers were still nondisabled. Physical activity, from low to moderate to high, was significantly associated with more years of life expectancy in both smokers (9.5, 10.5, 12.9 years in men and 11.1, 12.6, 15.3 years in women at age 65) and nonsmokers (11.0, 14.4, 16.2 years in men and 12.7, 16.2, 18.4 years in women at age 65). Higher physical activity was associated with fewer years of disability prior to death. These findings provide strong and explicit evidence that refraining from smoking and doing regular physical activity predict a long and healthy life.

The authors compare the mortality experience of a national sample of diabetic men and women with their nondiabetic counterparts. The study population consists of respondents from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I), conducted in 1971-1975, who were traced in 1982-1984 through the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Over the nine-year follow-up period, the age-adjusted death rates for diabetic men and women were twice the rates for nondiabetics. About 75% of the excess mortality among diabetic men and 57% among diabetic women was attributable to cardiovascular disease deaths. After adjustment for age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, body mass index, and smoking, the relative risk of death was 2.3 for diabetic men and 2.0 for diabetic women. The relative risk for diabetics was highest for ischemic heart disease mortality (2.8 for men and 2.5 for women) and lowest for noncardiovascular disease deaths (1.4 for men and 1.1 for women). When subjects who reported having had a heart attack prior to the baseline examination were excluded, the relative risks for ischemic heart disease mortality among diabetics remained substantial (2.4 for men and 2.6 for women). There was little evidence that the relative risk of death for diabetics compared with nondiabetics differed by age or sex, although 95% confidence intervals around these estimates were wide.