Postoperative hospital stay is longer for frail, older patients, who are more likely to experience prolonged postoperative morbidity and reduced long-term survival. We recorded in-hospital mortality, morbidity and length of stay for 164 patients aged at least 65 years after unscheduled surgery. We evaluated pre-operative frailty with the 7-point Clinical Frailty Scale: 81 patients were 'not vulnerable' (frailty score 1-3) and 83 were 'vulnerable or frail' (frailty score ≧ 4), with mean (SD) ages of 74.7 (7.5) years vs. 79.4 (8.3) years, respectively, p < 0.001. Within 30 postoperative days 8/164 (5%) patients died, all with frailty scores ≧ 4, p = 0.007. Postoperative morbidity was less frequent in patients categorised as 'not vulnerable' on four out of the six days it was measured (days 3, 5, 8, 14, 23, 28). Median (IQR [range]) postoperative stay was 9 (6-18 [2-221]) days for patients with frailty scores 1-3, and 22 (12-33 [2-270]) days for patients with score ≧ 4, p < 0.001. Four variables independently associated with hospital discharge, hazard ratio (95%CI): E-POSSUM, 0.74 (0.60-0.92), p = 0.007; ASA 2, 0.35 (0.13-0.98), p = 0.046, ASA 3, 0.17 (0.06-0.47), p = 0.001 and ASA 4/5, 0.08 (0.02-0.28), p < 0.001; operative severity 'major +', 0.69 (0.41-1.08), p = 0.10 and the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool, 7.75 (0.81-74.40), p = 0.08.
Background Adult residential and nursing care homes are settings in which older and often vulnerable people live in close proximity. This population experiences a higher proportion of respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses than the general population and has been shown to have a high morbidity and mortality in relation to COVID-19. Methods We examined the number of hospital discharges to all Welsh adult care homes and the subsequent outbreaks of COVID-19 occurring over an 18 week period 22 February and 27 June 2020. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the impact of time-dependent exposure to hospital discharge on the incidence of the first known outbreak, over a window of 7-21 days after discharge, and adjusted for care home characteristics (including size, type of provision and health board). Results A total of 1068 care homes were monitored; 330 homes experienced an outbreak of COVID-19, and 511 homes received a discharge from hospital over the study period. The exposure to discharge from hospital was not associated with a significant increase in the risk of a new outbreak (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.89, 1.49, p = 0.28), after adjusting for care home size, which was by far the most significant predictor. Hazard ratios (95% CI) in comparison to homes of <10 residents were: 3.4 (2.0, 5.8) for 10-24 residents; 8.3 (5.0, 13.8) for 25-49 residents; and 17.3 (9.6, 31.1) for homes of 50+ residents. When stratified for care home size, the outbreak rates were very similar for periods when homes were exposed to a hospital discharge, in comparison to periods when homes were unexposed. Conclusion Our analyses showed that large homes were at considerably greater risk of outbreaks throughout the epidemic, and after adjusting for care home size, a discharge from hospital was not associated with a significant increase in risk. Keywords: COVID-19, care homes, hospital discharge, outbreak, time dependent Cox regression
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Background This study describes the epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreaks in four care homes in terms of spread, severity, presentation and interventions. Methods Participants were 100 residents and 102 staff from four co-located care homes in Wales. Data were collected from the homes and Public Health Wales, including demographics, presentations, test status and results, hospital admissions and deaths. Genomic sequencing of confirmed case samples was completed, where possible. Epi-curves, crude attack rates, a Kaplan-Meier survival curve and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using R. Results About 14 confirmed and 43 possible resident cases, 23 confirmed and 47 possible staff cases occurred. Crude attack rates of possible and confirmed cases were 57% (residents) and 69% (staff). Genomic sequencing for 10 confirmed case PCR samples identified at least 5 different UK lineages of COVID-19.42 (42%) residents died, 23 (55%) with COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 recorded on the death certificate. The hazard ratio for death amongst resident possible and confirmed cases compared to null cases, adjusting for age and sex, was 13.26 (95% CI 5.61–31.34). Conclusions There were extensive outbreaks of COVID-19 in these homes with high crude attack rates and deaths. Universal testing and early isolation of residents are recommended.
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