The growing interest for Arctic and Antarctic shipping activities due to the decreasing ice cover will also increase the risks of accidents on these waters. The design of ships for ice has traditionally been based on the practical experience without a clear link to the physics of the ship-ice interaction. The rules are, however, getting more towards the goal based approach, which require good knowledge of all the various element important for design. Risk based ship design (RBSD) is also widely applied e.g. for the passengers ships. Therefore, the scope of this paper is the review of the knowledge necessary for RBSD for Arctic conditions. The main focus is on ice loads and ship structures. Accident prevention and environmental consequences of oil spills are also discussed, but more briefly. In risk analysis, there is a recent focus on the treatment of uncertainty, or conversely, the strength of knowledge underlying the risk quantification. In light of this, the review is performed with specific focus on the strength of evidence of the different fields of knowledge needed to perform RBSD in ice conditions. The results indicate that the risk based design for Arctic operations is challenging as the ice environment, together with all the possible ship-ice contact scenarios, are complicated to define properly, especially on proper probabilistic terms. The main challenges are still related how to describe the ship-ice interaction parameters such as ship-ice contact characteristics, pressure distributions, and load levels in all the various ice conditions. In addition, the possible environmental consequences of the accidents need further research. Finally, human factors need to be incorporated in risk analysis techniques.
This is a review paper of studies that have employed the functional resonance analysis method (FRAM). FRAM is a relatively new systemic method for modeling and analyzing complex socio-technical systems. This review aims to address the following research questions: (a) Why is FRAM used? (b) To what domains has FRAM been applied? (c) What are the appropriate data collection approaches in practice? (d) What are the deficiencies of FRAM? A review of 52 FRAM-related studies published between 2010 and 2020 revealed that FRAM-based models can be used as a basis for improving safety management, accident/incident investigation, hazard identification/risk management, and complexity management in complex socio-technical systems. The outcomes also showed that healthcare was the most common domain that employed FRAM (31% of the investigated studies). The results of exploring data collection methods indicated a mixed method (interview, focus group, observation) was employed in 52% of the analyzed studies, and the accident investigation report was the most popular approach in aviation-related studies. An investigation of the deficiencies of the FRAM showed that it should be upgraded by exploiting supplementary methods to enhance its analytical and computational capacity to help risk analysts and safety managers in complex socio-technical systems. K E Y W O R D S accident investigation, complex socio-technical systems, complexity management, functional resonance analysis method (FRAM), hazard identification, safety management 1 | INTRODUCTION 1.1 | Background Complex socio-technical systems consist of some subsystems and subactivities linked in known or unknown ways (Hollnagel, 2012a, 2012b). Examples of socio-technical systems include healthcare, aviation, manufacturing, power industry, and automotive (Soliman & Saurin, 2017). They are inherently complex, nonlinear, uncertain, and dynamic (Jensen & Aven, 2018). Complex relationships between humans and their environments, including technologies and organizations, show that safety is not a linear and straightforward process in such systems (Grant et al., 2018). In the Safety-I perspective, the focus is on reducing adverse outcomes, such as accidents, incidents, and near misses (Hollnagel, 2018). The core idea of the established techniques for analyzing risks and accidents in the Safety-I approach is based on event chains: unexpected outcomes and potential accidents cannot be anticipated by considering event chains or possible
The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) was adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and entered into force on 1 January 2017. It provides a comprehensive treatment of topics relevant to ships operating in Polar regions. From a design perspective, in scenarios where ice exposure and the consequences of ice-induced damage are the same, it is rational to require the same ice class and structural performance for such vessels. Design requirements for different ice class vessels are provided in the Polar Code. The Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology provided in the Polar Code offers valuable guidance regarding operational limits for ice class vessels in different ice conditions. POLARIS has been shown to well reflect structural risk, and serves as a valuable decision support tool for operations and route planning. At the same time, the current POLARIS methodology does not directly account for the potential consequences resulting from a vessel incurring ice-induced damage. While two vessels of the same ice class operating in the same ice conditions would have similar structural risk profiles, the overall risk profile of each vessel will depend on the magnitude of consequences, should an incident or accident occur. In this paper, a new framework is presented that augments the current POLARIS methodology to model consequences. It has been developed on the premise that vessels of a given class with higher potential life-safety, environmental, or socio-economic consequences should be operated more conservatively. The framework supports voyage planning and real-time operational decision making through assignment of operational criteria based on the likelihood of ice-induced damage and the potential consequences. The objective of this framework is to enhance the safety of passengers and crews and the protection of the Arctic environment and its stakeholders. The challenges associated with establishing risk perspectives and evaluating consequences for Arctic ship operations are discussed. This methodology proposes a pragmatic pathway to link ongoing scientific research with risk-based methods to help inform recommended practices and decision support tools. Example scenarios are considered to illustrate the flexibility of the methodology in accounting for varied risk profiles for different vessel types, as well as incorporating input from local communities and risk and environmental impact assessments.
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