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PAGES 157,160Aviation is an integral part of the global economic and transportation systems. In fact, aviation expansion outpaces the eco nomic growth. Projections indicate that over the next 2 decades, the demand for aviation could grow to about 3 times its present level. This projected growth will likely result in higher aviation emissions and associated impacts on the environment and on human health and welfare, depending upon a vari ety of factors (such as the size and mix of the operational fleet necessary to meet the stated demand, as well as mitigation steps that could include new technological advances, more efficient operational proce dures, market-based options, or regulatory intervention). Nonetheless, it is critical to balance the economic benefits of air travel with environmental concerns associated with this projected aviation growth.

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Climate change is a broad-reaching, global challenge. It impacts most human and natural systems, from agriculture and ecosystems to energy and health, and exacerbates other preexisting issues, from poverty to political instability. Evaluating these impacts and our vulnerability to them increases awareness of the need for adaptation and resilience. This chapter provides a brief history of impact assessments, focusing on the models, tools, and information that are needed and are available to quantify future impacts across a wide range of systems and scales, and to provide valuable input to adaptation and resilience planning.