Summary 1.Climate is changing. Predictions are for at least a 3 ° C rise in mean temperature in northern Europe over the next century. Existing severe impacts of nutrients and inappropriate fish stocking in freshwater systems remain. 2. Effects of warming by 3 ° C above ambient, nutrient addition and the presence or absence of sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus were studied in experimental microcosms dominated by submerged plants, mimicking shallow lake ecosystems. 3. Warming had considerably smaller effects on the phytoplankton community than did fish and nutrients. It had very minor effects on chlorophyll a and total phytoplankton biovolume. However, it significantly decreased the biovolumes of Cryptophyceae (a major component in the controls) and Dinophyceae. Contrary to expectation, warming did not increase the abundance of blue-green algae (cyanophytes). Warming decreased the abundances of Cryptomonas erosa (Cryptophyceae) and Oocystis pusilla (Chlorophycota) and increased those of two other green algae, Tetraedron minimum and Micractinium pusillum . It had no effect on a further 17 species that were predominant in a community of about 90 species. 4. Fish and nutrients, either together or separately, generally increased the crops of most of the 21 abundant species and of the algal groups. Exceptions were for diatoms and chrysophytes, which were very minor components of the communities. Fish, but neither nutrients nor warming, increased the number of species of phytoplankton detected. This was probably through removal of zooplankton grazers, and parallels terrestrial studies where the presence of top predators, by controlling herbivores, leads to increased plant diversity. 5. There was no particular pattern in the taxonomy or biological characteristics of those species affected by the treatments. In particular, there was no link between organism size (a surrogate for many important biological features of phytoplankton species) and the effects of warming, nutrient addition or presence or absence of fish. However, all species were relatively small and potentially vulnerable to grazing. 6. Synthesis and applications. The results suggest that fears of an increasing abundance of cyanophytes with current projections of global warming may be unrealized, at least in shallow unstratified lakes still dominated by macrophytes. However, they emphasize that eutrophication and fish manipulations remain very important impact factors that determine the abundance of phytoplankton and subsequent problems caused by large growths.

Under conditions of stress, shallow freshwater ecosystems can undergo a state change characterized by the rapid loss of macrophytes and subsequent dominance of phytoplankton. Elevated water temperature may promote such change. Here we report the impact of two warming regimes (continuous 3ЊC above ambient and 3ЊC above ambient during summer only), with two nutrient loadings and the presence or absence of fish, on 48 microcosm ecosystems created to mimic shallow pond environments. We found that warming did not significantly encourage phytoplankton blooms, even in combination with increased nutrients and fish. Instead, macrophyte communities remained dominant. Macrophyte-associated invertebrates (gastropods and ostracods) increased in numbers in the warmed microcosms, potentially helping to stabilize the macrophyte communities. Nevertheless, warming produced trends in water chemistry that could be problematic. It increased phosphorus concentrations, total alkalinity, and conductivity. It decreased pH and oxygen saturation and increased the frequency of severe deoxygenation. These trends were largely independent of the other experimental treatments and support the suggestion that moderate warming has the potential to exacerbate existing eutrophication problems.

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1. We report data collected from 48 replicated microcosm communities created to mimic plant‐dominated shallow lake and pond environments. Over a 2‐year period, the microcosms were subjected to warming treatments (continuous 3 °C above ambient and 3 °C above ambient during summer only), a nutrient addition treatment and the presence or absence of fish. We tracked macro‐zooplankter dynamics, censusing cladoceran populations at the species level, copepods at the order level and ostracods as a class. 2. Responses to warming were subtle. Cladoceran diversity and overall abundance were not significantly affected by warming, although measures of community evenness increased. Warming effects on patterns of population trajectories tended to be strongly seasonal and most apparent during periods of pronounced increase. Populations of the prevalent cladocerans, Chydorus sphaericus and Simocephalus vetulus, displayed idiosyncratic patterns, with evidence in the case of S. vetulus for a negative relationship between warming and body‐size at maturity. Copepod populations were reduced in size by warming, but those of ostracods increased. 3. The effects of the nutrient addition and fish treatments were strong and consistent, interacting little with warming effects in statistical models. Zooplankter abundance tended to be the highest in the fish‐free microcosms receiving additional nutrient inputs and lowest when fish were present and no nutrients were added. Both treatments reduced cladoceran diversity and community evenness. 4. We suggest that warming, independently, is unlikely to supplant the effects of changing nutrient loading and fish predation as the major driver of zooplankter dynamics in shallow lakes and ponds. Moreover, in the situations where warming was of significant influence in our experiment, the distinction between summer‐only warming and year‐around warming was blurred. This suggests that warming effects were most pervasive during the summer, at the upper end of the temperature spectrum.

Invertebrate offspring are usually larger in colder environments. To test for possible effects of covariates (e.g. maternal phenotype and feeding conditions) on this pattern, we performed a laboratory experiment to look at the effect of temperature on newborn weight in the planktonic crustacean Daphnia magna. Three tempèratures (12°C, 16°C and 22°C) and two food levels (10,000 cells ml and 150,000 cells ml) were used, and offspring were examined from the first five clutches of mothers that had been maintained under the constant experimental conditions for three generations. Preliminary analysis suggested that newborn weight was significantly affected by temperature although patterns in the data were not clear cut. In addition, the covariates mother weight and clutch size were positively and negatively correlated with newborn weight, respectively; and later clutches tended to contain heavier offspring. Therefore, in an effort to control for the effects of the covariates, repeated-measures analysis of covariance was performed using ratio values of newborn weight/mother weight (relative newborn weight) as the dependent variable, clutch size as the covariate and clutch number as the repeated measures term. Now, temperature as a main effect in an ANCOVA model did not significantly influence relative newborn weight. The repeatedmeasure term clutch number also became nonsignificant, indicating that when differences in mother weight due to age were accounted for there were no overall differences in relative newborn weight between clutches from a particular mother. Temperature effects on relative newborn weight were only significant as part of interaction terms with food concentration and with clutch number. Thus there were different weight responses to temperature within food levels, and between clutch numbers within food levels. Under the low-food conditions newborn were heaviest at 16°C, lightest at 12°C and intermediate at 22°C. Conversely, under the high-food condition newborn were lightest at 16°C, heaviest at 12°C and again intermediate at 22°C. However, newborn tended to be heavier under the low food condition, and food concentration was highly significant as a main effect. Mother growth rate showed no significant relationship with newborn weight. It is concluded that direct temperature effects on relative newborn weight are marginal and nonsignificant. Temperature effects through interactions with food concentration and clutch number are important determinants of newborn weight, but relatively speaking account for only a small proportion of observed variance in newborn weight (25%), compared with the direct effect of food concentration (67%).