Because climate has the greatest effect in determining the genetic structure of forest tree species, climatic variables with large effects on growth and survival need to be identified. This would enable proper matching of tree populations to planting sites in the present and future climates. We analysed 24-year survival (S24), height (H24) and diameter (D24) from a series of white spruce provenance trials with 46 populations and 8 test sites in Alberta, Canada. We determined: (1) the amount and pattern of genetic variation, (2) the response of populations to climatic transfer and (3) the potential effects of climate change (2030-2039) on H24 and S24 of the species in Alberta. We found that: (1) using the intraclass correlation, the between-population genetic variance was 10.6% (H24) and 6.6% (D24) of the betweenpopulation phenotypic variance across sites, (2) three climatic white spruce regions exist in Alberta within which variation in growth potential is strongly clinal, (3) the annual moisture index (AMI) expressed as a ratio of degree days above 5°C (GDD) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was the major determinant of survival and growth at the test sites, (4) we found that at the level of AMI predicted for the 2030-2039 period, survival and growth would decline substantially in the continental part (northern and central) of Alberta where drought already exists. However, during the same period, survival and growth would increase substantially in the foothills and Rocky Mountains region where growth is currently limited by low GDD due to a short growing season.

Tree improvement programs usually consist of multiple breeding populations that target different climatic or ecological regions. Parent breeding material normally originates from and is deployed within the same breeding region, assuming optimal local adaptation of populations. Given the climate trends observed over the last several decades in western Canada, this assumption is unlikely to still be valid. This problem needs to be addressed either by delineating new deployment areas for improved planting stock or by selecting genotypes suitable for changed climatic environments. In a case study for white spruce, we analyzed height data from 135,000 trees grown in 44 genetic tests established and evaluated over a period of 35 years by industry and government agencies in Alberta. We show how the risk of planting maladapted trees can be minimized by moving planting stock to new areas, or by eliminating genotypes from breeding programs that are sensitive to anticipated future climate environments. Transfers that outperformed local sources consistently originated from locations with higher temperatures, suggesting north or northwest transfers. However, adaptation to cold appears to be a prevalent driver for genetic population differentiation in spruce, thus limiting how far material may be moved in current reforestation efforts to address future climate change.

Growth and survival of 33 populations from a species complex involving interior lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) and jack pine ( Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and their natural hybrids in Alberta were evaluated at ages 5, 10, and 15 years in eight test sites across Alberta. We determined population differentiations by estimating Mahalanobis distances between populations from the canonical discriminant analysis of the total variability and by calculating dissimilarity indexes between populations from the quadratic regression of overall growth and survival on the overall climate. The grouping of the populations based on the Mahalanobis distances showed that most jack pine populations could be separated from lodgepole and hybrid populations, but no further subdivision was possible to distinguish lodgepole from hybrid populations. This clustering pattern was remarkably similar to the grouping based on molecular markers as shown in our earlier study. This pattern of grouping is best explained by a clear elevational demarcation between jack pine at low elevations and lodgepole pine and hybrids at midrange and high elevations. The grouping of the populations based on the dissimilarity indexes revealed a somewhat contrasting pattern; most lodgepole pine populations were in one group, whereas jack pine and hybrid populations were mixed up in the other group. The two contrasting patterns of grouping suggest that nonclimatic factors such as edaphic preference and habitat disturbances are also important in determining population distributions and niche spaces in the lodgepole – jack pine complex.

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