China has taken advantage of the globalisation process and has become an assembly country for firms in Asia, which have extended their production and trade networks to China. China's position in the segmentation of the production processes has fostered its trade in high-technology products. However the rapid technological upgrading of China's trade is associated with an increasing dependence on foreign capital and technology. The emergence of China has led to the reorganisation of production in Asia and to a triangular trade pattern: firms in advanced Asian economies use China as an export base and instead of exporting finished goods to the US and Europe, now export intermediate goods to their affiliates in China.
JEL Classification
The emergence of China has intensified the international segmentation of production processes within Asia, but has not created an autonomous engine for the region's trade, as Asia still depends on outside markets for its final goods exports. The reorganisation of production has weakened the position of the advanced economies (Japan and the US) in Asia's trade, but up to now has not severely affected the position of the emerging Asian economies (Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand). However, the surge of China's exports and the decline of its export prices, suggest the risk of a downward spiral of cost-competition, while the deterioration of China's terms of trade raises the question of the sustainability of its recent growth strategy.
China and India are two demographic giants that have become big developing economic powers. They have maintained their specialization in textiles and developed outward-oriented sectors linked to new technologies, taking advantage of offshoring and outsourcing. Their increasing contribution to international trade is changing the world supply and demand of manufactured goods, primary goods and services. They are new leaders in the international division of labor, but beyond technological catch-up, their challenge is quality upgrading. Both countries are increasingly contributing to global economic growth, but they cannotyet trigger the growth of the rest of the world by themselves. Copyright (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2008 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Résumé Les années quatre-vingt-dix ont vu la montée en puissance de la Chine sur différents marchés mondiaux de produits, y compris ceux à forte intensité technologique. La Chine a pu prendre position dans ces secteurs, où la demande internationale est forte et les gains de productivité importants, en se spécialisant dans les activités d’assemblage, qui sont intensifs en travail et où elle a un avantage comparatif. La politique commerciale chinoise a favorisé le rapide essor d’industries très compétitives, intégrées dans les circuits internationaux d’échange de produits de haute technologie et dominées par les entreprises étrangères. Ces industries extraverties coexistent avec des secteurs traditionnels d’exportation, où l’on trouve surtout des entreprises entièrement chinoises et qui prennent du retard. Les effets d’entraînement des industries extraverties sur les capacités industrielles et technologiques des entreprises chinoises paraissent pour l’instant faibles. L’entrée dans l’OMC devrait contribuer à réduire cette dichotomie, source d’interrogations sur les réelles capacités de rattrapage à terme de ce pays. Classification JEL : F13; F14; 053.
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