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Summary The collapse of global cooperation and a failure of international solidarity have led to many low-income and middle-income countries being denied access to molecular diagnostics in the COVID-19 pandemic response. Yet the scarcity of knowledge on the dynamics of the immune response to infection has led to hesitation on recommending the use of rapid immunodiagnostic tests, even though rapid serology tests are commercially available and scalable. On the basis of our knowledge and understanding of viral infectivity and host response, we urge countries without the capacity to do molecular testing at scale to research the use of serology tests to triage symptomatic patients in community settings, to test contacts of confirmed cases, and in situational analysis and surveillance. The WHO R&D Blue Print expert group identified eight priorities for research and development, of which the highest is to mobilise research on rapid point-of-care diagnostics for use at the community level. This research should inform control programmes of the required performance and utility of rapid serology tests, which, when applied specifically for appropriate public health measures to then be put in place, can make a huge difference.

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HLA-B*57 is the class I allele most consistently associated with control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication, which may be linked to the specific HIV peptides that this allele presents to cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), and the resulting efficacy of these cellular immune responses. In two HIV C clade–infected populations in South Africa and Zambia, we sought to elucidate the role of HLA-B*5703 in HIV disease outcome. HLA-B*5703–restricted CTL responses select for escape mutations in three Gag p24 epitopes, in a predictable order. We show that the accumulation of these mutations sequentially reduces viral replicative capacity in vitro. Despite this, in vivo data demonstrate that there is ultimately an increase in viral load concomitant with evasion of all three HLA-B*5703–restricted CTL responses. In HLA-B*5703–mismatched recipients, the previously described early benefit of transmitted HLA-B*5703–associated escape mutations is abrogated by the increase in viral load coincident with reversion. Rapid disease progression is observed in HLA-matched recipients to whom mutated virus is transmitted. These data demonstrate that, although costly escape from CTL responses can progressively attenuate the virus, high viral loads develop in the absence of adequate, continued CTL responses. These data underline the need for a CTL vaccine against multiple conserved epitopes.

The predominant mode of HIV-1 infection is heterosexual transmission, where a genetic bottleneck is imposed on the virus quasispecies. To probe whether limited genetic diversity in the genital tract (GT) of the transmitting partner drives this bottleneck, viral envelope sequences from the blood and genital fluids of eight transmission pairs from Rwanda and Zambia were analyzed. The chronically infected transmitting partner's virus population was heterogeneous with distinct genital subpopulations, and the virus populations within the GT of two of four women sampled longitudinally exhibited evidence of stability over time intervals on the order of weeks to months. Surprisingly, the transmitted founder variant was not derived from the predominant GT subpopulations. Rather, in each case, the transmitting variant was phylogenetically distinct from the sampled locally replicating population. Although the exact distribution of the virus population present in the GT at the time of transmission cannot be unambiguously defined in these human studies, it is unlikely, based on these data, that the transmission bottleneck is driven in every case by limited viral diversity in the donor GT or that HIV transmission is solely a stochastic event.