Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this paper we propose DeepAR, a methodology for producing accurate probabilistic forecasts, based on training an auto-regressive recurrent network model on a large number of related time series. We demonstrate how by applying deep learning techniques to forecasting, one can overcome many of the challenges faced by widely-used classical approaches to the problem. We show through extensive empirical evaluation on several real-world forecasting data sets accuracy improvements of around 15% compared to state-of-the-art methods.

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We present a novel approach for the decimation of triangle surface meshes. Our algorithm takes as input a triangle surface mesh and a set of planar proxies detected in a pre-processing analysis step, and structured via an adjacency graph. It then performs greedy mesh decimation through a series of edge collapse, designed to approximate the local mesh geometry as well as the geometry and structure of proxies. Such structure-preserving approach is well suited to planar abstraction, i.e. extreme decimation approximating well the planar parts while filtering out the others. Our experiments on a variety of inputs illustrate the potential of our approach in terms of improved accuracy and preservation of structure.

We study the simplification of simplicial complexes by repeated edge contractions. First, we extend to arbitrary simplicial complexes the statement that edges satisfying the link condition can be contracted while preserving the homotopy type. Our primary interest is to simplify flag complexes such as Rips complexes for which it was proved recently that they can provide topologically correct reconstructions of shapes. Flag complexes (sometimes called clique complexes) enjoy the nice property of being completely determined by the graph of their edges. But, as we simplify a flag complex by repeated edge contractions, the property that it is a flag complex is likely to be lost. Our second contribution is to propose a new representation for simplicial complexes particularly well adapted for complexes close to flag complexes. The idea is to encode a simplicial complex K by the graph G of its edges together with the inclusion-minimal simplices in the set difference Flag (G)\ K. We call these minimal simplices blockers. We prove that the link condition translates nicely in terms of blockers and give formulae for updating our data structure after an edge contraction. Finally, we observe in some simple cases that few blockers appear during the simplification of Rips complexes, demonstrating the efficiency of our representation in this context.