Summary1 Transitions between major vegetation types, such as the tree line, are useful systems for monitoring the response of vegetation to climate change. Tree lines have, however, shown equivocal responses to such change. 2 Tree lines are considered to be primarily thermally controlled, although recent work has highlighted the importance of biotic factors. Dispersal limitation and the invasibility of the tundra matrix have been implicated and here we propose herbivory as an additional control at some tree lines. 3 We propose a conceptual model in which differing relative impacts of foliage consumption, availability of establishment sites, trampling, dispersal and seed predation can lead to very different tree-line responses. 4 The presence of large numbers of small trees above the current tree line at a site in northern Sweden that experiences limited reindeer ( Rangifer tarandus ) herbivory suggests range expansion. Other locations in the same region with higher reindeer populations have considerably fewer small trees, suggesting that range expansion is occurring much more slowly, if at all. 5 The use of tree lines as indicators of climate change is confounded by the activity of herbivores, which may either strengthen or nullify the impacts of a changed climate. Similar arguments are likely to be applicable to other ecotones.

Shrub expansion is a global phenomenon that is occurring on savannas, rangelands, and grasslands. In addition, this is an increasingly documented occurrence in the Arctic. Numerous recent studies have strived to pinpoint the drivers of this phenomenon, quantify the changes, and understand their implications for regional and global land use, disturbance regimes, and nutrient cycling. Inquiry into these topics has been facilitated by recent technological developments in satellite remote sensing, aerial photograph analysis, and computer simulation modeling. We provide a new review that accounts for more recent studies in these regions, Arctic shrub expansion, and technological and analytical developments. This four-part discussion focuses on observed patterns of shrub expansion in three rangeland types (desert grasslands, mesic grasslands, savannas) and the Arctic tundra, the primary causes of this expansion, critical comparisons and contrasts between these land types, and recommendations for future avenues of research. These new avenues can inform the development of future land management policies, as well as ongoing investigations to understand and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Because of the difficulties involved with separating natural fluctuations in climatic variables from possible directional changes related to human activities (e.g., heightened atmospheric CO 2 concentrations related to fossil fuel consumption), some researchers have focused on developing alternative indicators to detect hypothesized climate changes. It has, for example, been suggested that the locations of ecotones, transitions between adjacent ecosystems or biomes, should be monitored. It is assumed that changes in climate, especially increases in atmospheric temperature, will result in shifts in the location (altitude or latitude) of ecotones as plants respond to the newly imposed climatic conditions. In this article, we address the use of two montane ecotones, the alpine tree-line ecotone and the deciduous/Boreal forest ecotone, in monitoring global climatic change. In so doing, we 1) outline the factors that create and maintain each ecotone's position at a given location; 2) assess the projected response of the ecotones to various aspects of global warming; and 3) discuss the usefulness of both ecotones as indicators of global climate change. While it is likely that extended periods of directional climate change would bring about an altitudinal shift in the ranges of montane species and the associated ecotones, we question whether the response at either ecotone will be at a timescale useful for detecting climate change (a few decades) owing to disequilibrium related to upslope edaphic limitations and competitive interactions with established canopy and subcanopy individuals. Further, limitations related to the prediction of the complex and interacting effects of projected changes in temperature, precipitation and site water balance on photosynthetic processes of plant species raise uncertainties about the expected responses of both ecotones.

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site‐specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non‐growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103–104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model‐based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global‐change‐related biotic and abiotic implications, including land–atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.

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