The proximate role of predation in limiting caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations is well documented, but the long-term effects of predation pressure on selection of calving areas and the subsequent impacts to calving success remain unclear. We examined the relationships among calf survival, predation risk, and vegetation characteristics among 3 calving areas and across spatial scales in the Besa-Prophet River drainage of northern British Columbia. Fifty woodland caribou (R. t. caribou) neonates were collared and monitored twice daily for the first month and once weekly during the next month of life in 2 summer field seasons (2002 and 2003). Predation risk was estimated using resource selection functions (RSFs) from Global Positioning System (GPS) locations of 15 grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and 5 gray wolf (Canis lupus) packs. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data were used to quantify large-scale characteristics of vegetation (indices of biomass and quality). We incorporated small-and large-scale characteristics (i.e., predation risk, vegetation, and movement of woodland caribou calves) of neonatal calving sites into logistic regression models to predict survival for the calving (25 May-14 Jun) and summer (15 Jun-31 Jul) seasons. Predation risk and vegetation characteristics were highly variable among calving areas and calving sites, and parturient woodland caribou responded to these characteristics at different scales. Minimizing gray wolf risk and selecting against areas of high vegetation biomass were important at large scales; areas with high biomass were likely associated with increased predation risk. Calving in areas high in vegetation quality was important across scales, as parturient woodland caribou took higher levels of predation risk to access areas of high vegetative change. Models using small-scale characteristics of calving sites to predict survival performed better in the calving season than in summer. Large-scale characteristics predicted survival of woodland caribou neonates better in summer than in the calving season, probably in part because of the unexpected role of wolverines (Gulo gulo) as the main predator of woodland caribou calves during calving. Gray wolves were the main cause of mortality during the summer. Movement away from calving sites corresponded to higher calf survival and appeared to be in response to increased access to forage during the peak demands of lactation and/or minimizing gray wolf risk in the summer. High variation in predation risk and vegetation attributes among calving areas and at calving sites within calving areas, with no differences in calf mortality related to that variation, illustrates the importance of behavioral plasticity as a life-history strategy for woodland caribou.Wildlife Monographs 165: 1-32

Climate change is altering the seasonal timing of life cycle events in organisms across the planet, but the magnitude of change often varies among taxa [Thackeray SJ, et al. (2016) 535:241-245]. This can cause the temporal relationships among species to change, altering the strength of interaction. A large body of work has explored what happens when coevolved species shift out of sync, but virtually no studies have documented the effects of climate-induced synchronization, which could remove temporal barriers between species and create novel interactions. We explored how a predator, the Kodiak brown bear (), responded to asymmetric phenological shifts between its primary trophic resources, sockeye salmon () and red elderberry (). In years with anomalously high spring air temperatures, elderberry fruited several weeks earlier and became available during the period when salmon spawned in tributary streams. Bears departed salmon spawning streams, where they typically kill 25-75% of the salmon [Quinn TP, Cunningham CJ, Wirsing AJ (2016) 183:415-429], to forage on berries on adjacent hillsides. This prey switching behavior attenuated an iconic predator-prey interaction and likely altered the many ecological functions that result from bears foraging on salmon [Helfield JM, Naiman RJ (2006) 9:167-180]. We document how climate-induced shifts in resource phenology can alter food webs through a mechanism other than trophic mismatch. The current emphasis on singular consumer-resource interactions fails to capture how climate-altered phenologies reschedule resource availability and alter how energy flows through ecosystems.

Climate-induced shifts in plant phenology may adversely affect animals that cannot or do not shift the timing of their reproductive cycle. The realized effect of potential trophic “mismatches” between a consumer and its food varies with the degree to which species rely on dietary income and stored capital. Large Arctic herbivores rely heavily on maternal capital to reproduce and give birth near the onset of the growing season but are they vulnerable to trophic mismatch? We evaluated the long-term changes in the temperatures and characteristics of the growing seasons (1970–2013), and compared growing conditions and dynamics of forage quality for caribou at peak parturition, peak lactation, and peak forage biomass, and plant senescence between two distinct time periods over 36 years (1977 and 2011–13). Despite advanced thaw dates (7−12 days earlier), increased growing season lengths (15−21 days longer), and consistent parturition dates, we found no decline in forage quality and therefore no evidence within this dataset for a trophic mismatch at peak parturition or peak lactation from 1977 to 2011–13. In Arctic ungulates that use stored capital for reproduction, reproductive demands are largely met by body stores deposited in the previous summer and autumn, which reduces potential adverse effects of any mismatch between food availability and timing of parturition. Climate-induced effects on forages growing in the summer and autumn ranges, however, do correspond with the demands of female caribou and their offspring to gain mass for the next reproductive cycle and winter. Therefore, we suggest the window of time to examine the match-mismatch framework in Arctic ungulates is not at parturition but in late summer-autumn, where the multiplier effects of small changes in forage quality are amplified by forage abundance, peak forage intake, and resultant mass gains in mother-offspring pairs.

Twentieth century warming has increased vegetation productivity and shrub cover across northern tundra and treeline regions, but effects on terrestrial wildlife have not been demonstrated on a comparable scale. During this period, Alaskan moose (Alces alces gigas) extended their range from the boreal forest into tundra riparian shrub habitat; similar extensions have been observed in Canada (A. a. andersoni) and Eurasia (A. a. alces). Northern moose distribution is thought to be limited by forage availability above the snow in late winter, so the observed increase in shrub habitat could be causing the northward moose establishment, but a previous hypothesis suggested that hunting cessation triggered moose establishment. Here, we use recent changes in shrub cover and empirical relationships between shrub height and growing season temperature to estimate available moose habitat in Arctic Alaska c. 1860. We estimate that riparian shrubs were approximately 1.1 m tall c. 1860, greatly reducing the available forage above the snowpack, compared to 2 m tall in 2009. We believe that increases in riparian shrub habitat after 1860 allowed moose to colonize tundra regions of Alaska hundreds of kilometers north and west of previous distribution limits. The northern shift in the distribution of moose, like that of snowshoe hares, has been in response to the spread of their shrub habitat in the Arctic, but at the same time, herbivores have likely had pronounced impacts on the structure and function of these shrub communities. These northward range shifts are a bellwether for other boreal species and their associated predators.