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Capsule: A newly developed pilot forecasting system for epidemic thunderstorm asthma is assisting the health sector in Victoria, Australia, to prepare for these rare but potentially deadly events.

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Background and objectiveOn 21 November 2016, parts of Victoria experienced a devastating epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) event. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology and burden of the 2016 ETSA event at MedicineInsight-registered general practices in the Melbourne metropolitan area in Victoria, Australia. MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted using patient record data from 21-23 November 2016. Codes were developed to identify all patients presenting to MedicineInsight-registered general practices with asthma during the 2016 ETSA event. ResultsDuring the event, there were 787 more asthma-related encounters to MedicineInsight general practices than expected, which represented a 7.1-fold increase (605% increase). Estimates suggest that there were between approximately 8940 and 13,689 more asthma-related encounters than expected across metropolitan Melbourne.