Introduction Machine learning (ML) may harbor the potential to capture the metabolic complexity in Alzheimer Disease (AD). Here we set out to test the performance of metabolites in blood to categorize AD when compared to CSF biomarkers. Methods This study analyzed samples from 242 cognitively normal (CN) people and 115 with AD‐type dementia utilizing plasma metabolites (n = 883). Deep Learning (DL), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Random Forest (RF) were used to differentiate AD from CN. These models were internally validated using Nested Cross Validation (NCV). Results On the test data, DL produced the AUC of 0.85 (0.80–0.89), XGBoost produced 0.88 (0.86–0.89) and RF produced 0.85 (0.83–0.87). By comparison, CSF measures of amyloid, p‐tau and t‐tau (together with age and gender) produced with XGBoost the AUC values of 0.78, 0.83 and 0.87, respectively. Discussion This study showed that plasma metabolites have the potential to match the AUC of well‐established AD CSF biomarkers in a relatively small cohort. Further studies in independent cohorts are needed to validate whether this specific panel of blood metabolites can separate AD from controls, and how specific it is for AD as compared with other neurodegenerative disorders.

We address the problem of defining semantics for logic programs in presence of incomplete and contradictory information coming from different sources. The information consists of facts that a central server collects and tries to combine using (a) a set of logical rules, that is, a logic program, and (b) a hypothesis representing the server's own estimates. In such a setting incomplete information from a source or contradictory information from different sources necessitate the use of manyvalued logics in which programs can be evaluated and hypotheses can be tested. To carry out such activities we propose a formal framework based on bilattices such as Belnap's four-valued logics. In this framework we work with the class of programs defined by Fitting and we propose hypothesisbased semantics for such programs. We also establish an intuitively appealing connection between our hypothesis testing mechanism, on the one hand, and the well-founded semantics and KripkeKleene semantics of Datalog programs with negation, on the other hand.

Abstract-Over the last two decades, a significant body of research has established a link between cannabis use and psychotic outcomes. In this study, we aim to propose a novel symbiotic machine learning and statistical approach to pattern detection and to developing predictive models for the onset of first-episode psychosis. The data used has been gathered from real cases in cooperation with a medical research institution, and comprises a wide set of variables including demographic, drug-related, as well as several variables specifically related to the cannabis use. Our approach is built upon several machine learning techniques whose predictive models have been optimised in a computationally intensive framework. The ability of these models to predict first-episode psychosis has been extensively tested through large scale Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that Boosted Classification Trees outperform other models in this context, and have significant predictive ability despite a large number of missing values in the data. Furthermore, we extended our approach by further investigating how different patterns of cannabis use relate to new cases of psychosis, via association analysis and bayesian techniques.