Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

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Background and ObjectiveLow level light therapy has garnered significant interest within the past decade. The exact molecular mechanisms of how red and near infrared light result in physiologic modulation are not fully understood. Heme moieties and copper within cells are red and near infrared light photoreceptors that induce the mitochondrial respiratory chain component cytochrome C oxidase, resulting in a cascade linked to cytoprotection and cellular metabolism. The copper centers in cytochrome C oxidase have a broad absorption range that peaks around 830 nm. Several in vitro and in vivo animal and human models exist that have demonstrated the benefits of red light and near infrared light for various conditions. Clinical applications for low level light therapy are varied. One study in particular demonstrated improved durable functional outcomes status post-stroke in patients treated with near infrared low level light therapy compared to sham treatment [1]. Despite previous data suggesting the beneficial effect in treating multiple conditions, including stroke, with low level light therapy, limited data exists that measures transmission in a human model.Study Design/Materials and MethodsTo investigate this idea, we measured the transmission of near infrared light energy, using red light for purposes of comparison, through intact cadaver soft tissue, skull bones, and brain using a commercially available LED device at 830 nm and 633 nm.ResultsOur results demonstrate that near infrared measurably penetrates soft tissue, bone and brain parenchyma in the formalin preserved cadaveric model, in comparison to negligible red light transmission in the same conditions.ConclusionThese findings indicate that near infrared light can penetrate formalin fixed soft tissue, bone and brain and implicate that benefits observed in clinical studies are potentially related to direct action of near infrared light on neural tissue.