Abstract. Both means and year-to-year variances of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are predicted to change. However, the potential impact of changing climatic variability on the fate of populations has been largely unexamined. We analyzed multiyear demographic data for 36 plant and animal species with a broad range of life histories and types of environment to ask how sensitive their long-term stochastic population growth rates are likely to be to changes in the means and standard deviations of vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth) in response to changing climate. We quantified responsiveness using elasticities of the long-term population growth rate predicted by stochastic projection matrix models. Short-lived species (insects and annual plants and algae) are predicted to be more strongly (and negatively) affected by increasing vital rate variability relative to longer-lived species (perennial plants, birds, ungulates). Taxonomic affiliation has little power to explain sensitivity to increasing variability once longevity has been taken into account. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of short-lived species to an increasingly variable climate, but also suggest that problems associated with short-lived undesirable species (agricultural pests, disease vectors, invasive weedy plants) may be exacerbated in regions where climate variability decreases.
Cigarette smoke contains two very different populations of free radicals, one in the tar and one in the gas phase. The tar phase contains several relatively stable free radicals; we have identified the principal radical as a quinone/hydroquinone (Q/QH2) complex held in the tarry matrix. We suggest that this Q/QH2 polymer is an active redox system that is capable of reducing molecular oxygen to produce superoxide, eventually leading to hydrogen peroxide and hydroxyl radicals. In addition, we have shown that the principal radical in tar reacts with DNA in vitro, possibly by covalent binding. The gas phase of cigarette smoke contains small oxygen- and carbon-centered radicals that are much more reactive than are the tar-phase radicals. These gas-phase radicals do not arise in the flame, but rather are produced in a steady state by the oxidation of NO to NO2, which then reacts with reactive species in smoke such as isoprene. We suggest that these radicals and the metastable products derived from these radical reactions may be responsible for the inactivation of alpha 1-proteinase inhibitor by fresh smoke. Cigarette smoke oxidizes thiols to disulfides; we suggest the active oxidants are NO and NO2. The effects of smoke on lipid peroxidation are complex, and this is discussed. We also discuss the toxicological implications for the radicals in smoke in terms of a number of radical-mediated disease processes, including emphysema and cancer.
Slowing rates of global biodiversity loss requires preventing species extinctions. Here we pinpoint centers of imminent extinction, where highly threatened species are confined to single sites. Within five globally assessed taxa (i.e., mammals, birds, selected reptiles, amphibians, and conifers), we find 794 such species, three times the number recorded as having gone extinct since 1500. These species occur in 595 sites, concentrated in tropical forests, on islands, and in mountainous areas. Their taxonomic and geographical distribution differs significantly from that of historical extinctions, indicating an expansion of the current extinction episode beyond sensitive species and places toward the planet's most biodiverse mainland regions. Only one-third of the sites are legally protected, and most are surrounded by intense human development. These sites represent clear opportunities for urgent conservation action to prevent species loss.biodiversity ͉ conservation ͉ protected area ͉ threatened species
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