No abstract

Diversity, understood as the variety of different elements or configurations that an extensive system has, is a crucial property that allows maintaining the system’s functionality in a changing environment, where failures, random events or malicious attacks are often unavoidable. Despite the relevance of preserving diversity in the context of ecology, biology, transport, finances, etc., the elements or configurations that more contribute to the diversity are often unknown, and thus, they can not be protected against failures or environmental crises. This is due to the fact that there is no generic framework that allows identifying which elements or configurations have crucial roles in preserving the diversity of the system. Existing methods treat the level of heterogeneity of a system as a measure of its diversity, being unsuitable when systems are composed of a large number of elements with different attributes and types of interactions. Besides, with limited resources, one needs to find the best preservation policy, i.e., one needs to solve an optimization problem. Here we aim to bridge this gap by developing a metric between labeled graphs to compute the diversity of the system, which allows identifying the most relevant components, based on their contribution to a global diversity value. The proposed framework is suitable for large multiplex structures, which are constituted by a set of elements represented as nodes, which have different types of interactions, represented as layers. The proposed method allows us to find, in a genetic network (HIV-1), the elements with the highest diversity values, while in a European airline network, we systematically identify the companies that maximize (and those that less compromise) the variety of options for routes connecting different airports.

Diabetic retinopathy is a complication of diabetes that produces changes in the blood vessel structure in the retina, which can cause severe vision problems and even blindness. In this paper, we demonstrate that by identifying topological features in very high resolution retinal images, we can construct a classifier that discriminates between healthy patients and those with diabetic retinopathy using summary statistics of these features. Topological data analysis identifies the features as connected components and holes in the images and describes the extent to which they persist across the image. These features are encoded in persistence diagrams, summaries of which can be used to discrimate between diabetic and healthy patients. The method has the potential to be an effective automated screening tool, with high sensitivity and specificity.

Identifying, from time series analysis, reliable indicators of causal relationships is essential for many disciplines. Main challenges are distinguishing correlation from causality and discriminating between direct and indirect interactions. Over the years many methods for data-driven causal inference have been proposed; however, their success largely depends on the characteristics of the system under investigation. Often, their data requirements, computational cost or number of parameters limit their applicability. Here we propose a computationally efficient measure for causality testing, which we refer to as pseudo transfer entropy (pTE), that we derive from the standard definition of transfer entropy (TE) by using a Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate the power of the pTE measure on simulated and on real-world data. In all cases we find that pTE returns results that are very similar to those returned by Granger causality (GC). Importantly, for short time series, pTE combined with time-shifted (T-S) surrogates for significance testing strongly reduces the computational cost with respect to the widely used iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform (IAAFT) surrogate testing. For example, for time series of 100 data points, pTE and T-S reduce the computational time by $$82\%$$ 82 % with respect to GC and IAAFT. We also show that pTE is robust against observational noise. Therefore, we argue that the causal inference approach proposed here will be extremely valuable when causality networks need to be inferred from the analysis of a large number of short time series.

Extracting relevant properties of empirical signals generated by nonlinear, stochastic, and high-dimensional systems is a challenge of complex systems research. Open questions are how to differentiate chaotic signals from stochastic ones, and how to quantify nonlinear and/or high-order temporal correlations. Here we propose a new technique to reliably address both problems. Our approach follows two steps: first, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) with flicker (colored) noise to predict the value of the parameter, $$\alpha$$ α , that determines the strength of the correlation of the noise. To predict $$\alpha$$ α the ANN input features are a set of probabilities that are extracted from the time series by using symbolic ordinal analysis. Then, we input to the trained ANN the probabilities extracted from the time series of interest, and analyze the ANN output. We find that the $$\alpha$$ α value returned by the ANN is informative of the temporal correlations present in the time series. To distinguish between stochastic and chaotic signals, we exploit the fact that the difference between the permutation entropy (PE) of a given time series and the PE of flicker noise with the same $$\alpha$$ α parameter is small when the time series is stochastic, but it is large when the time series is chaotic. We validate our technique by analysing synthetic and empirical time series whose nature is well established. We also demonstrate the robustness of our approach with respect to the length of the time series and to the level of noise. We expect that our algorithm, which is freely available, will be very useful to the community.