Although acclaimed as a biofuel crop with high potential to sustainably replace fossil fuels, Jatropha curcas L. remains a poorly studied plant. Reliable yield assessments with conventional methods require agroclimatic and physiological knowledge, which is not yet available for Jatropha. To fill this gap, we tested a novel two-step approach integrating knowledge from biogeography and population biology with available Jatropha field data. In the first step, using MaxEnt, a widely implemented model in biogeography, we predicted Jatropha fitness in response to climate by relating natural occurrence recorded in herbaria with bioclimatic geodatasets. In the second step, we relied on population biology principles supported by seed mass addition experiments to relate fitness to reproductive potential, hence seed yield. Jatropha seed yield in response to climate was mapped worldwide for actual (1950-2000 average) and future (2020) climate conditions. The modelled Jatropha seed yield was validated against a set of on-field yield assessments (R 2 5 0.67, Po0.001). The discrepancies between estimated and measured yields were partially explained by model uncertainties, as quantified by the sensitivity analysis of our modelling (R 2 5 0.57, P 5 0.001). Jatropha has a pan-tropical distribution, plus specific adaptability to hot temperate areas. Climate variables most significantly affecting modelled yield response were annual average temperature, minimum temperature, annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality.

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the ‘nexus’ of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.

Indigenous fruit tree species such as tamarind (Tamarindus indica L.) in African sub-Saharan traditionally act to build resilience into the farming system in terms of food security, income generation and ecosystem stability. Therefore, increasing our knowledge on their ecology and distribution is a priority. Tamarind is mainly grown for the fruits but is also a valuable timber species. The fruit pulp has a high content of vitamin B and is eaten fresh or made into jam, chutney, juice or sweets. Flowers, leaves and seeds are also edible and used in a variety of dishes. The main objective of this study is to evaluate actual density of tamarind in Senegal and the climate change effects on its distribution for better conservation strategies. Tamarind's distribution and density around villages were recorded and modelled in different agro-ecological zones in Senegal using transect method and under current and future climates. Distribution under two future climate scenarios were modelled using four climate models and three time slices (2020, 2050 and 2080). Results show a decreasing gradient in tree density (from 7 to 1 trees km-2) from the Sudano agro-ecological zone (in the south) to the Sahel (in the north). Future climate predictions show that although tamarind distribution will increase in the north-west and south of the country in 2020; by 2050, the area identified as suitable for its growth will be greatly reduced. Areas in the north-west basin appear to be an important refugia for the species under future climate conditions. However, density around villages in this area was found to be relatively low indicating that this could lead to problems of poor connectivity and inbreeding depression. This region should therefore be highlighted as important conservative management and protection strategies of tamarind in this region

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This is a repository copy of Economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services: a review for decision makers.