Summary Tree mortality rates appear to be increasing in moist tropical forests (MTFs) with significant carbon cycle consequences. Here, we review the state of knowledge regarding MTF tree mortality, create a conceptual framework with testable hypotheses regarding the drivers, mechanisms and interactions that may underlie increasing MTF mortality rates, and identify the next steps for improved understanding and reduced prediction. Increasing mortality rates are associated with rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit, liana abundance, drought, wind events, fire and, possibly, CO2 fertilization‐induced increases in stand thinning or acceleration of trees reaching larger, more vulnerable heights. The majority of these mortality drivers may kill trees in part through carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. The relative importance of each driver is unknown. High species diversity may buffer MTFs against large‐scale mortality events, but recent and expected trends in mortality drivers give reason for concern regarding increasing mortality within MTFs. Models of tropical tree mortality are advancing the representation of hydraulics, carbon and demography, but require more empirical knowledge regarding the most common drivers and their subsequent mechanisms. We outline critical datasets and model developments required to test hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of increasing MTF mortality rates, and improve prediction of future mortality under climate change.

How plants respond physiologically to leaf warming and low water availability may determine how they will perform under future climate change. In 2015–2016, an unprecedented drought occurred across Amazonia with record-breaking high temperatures and low soil moisture, offering a unique opportunity to evaluate the performances of Amazonian trees to a severe climatic event. We quantified the responses of leaf water potential, sap velocity, whole-tree hydraulic conductance ( K wt ), turgor loss and xylem embolism, during and after the 2015–2016 El Niño for five canopy-tree species. Leaf/xylem safety margins (SMs), sap velocity and K wt showed a sharp drop during warm periods. SMs were negatively correlated with vapour pressure deficit, but had no significant relationship with soil water storage. Based on our calculations of canopy stomatal and xylem resistances, the decrease in sap velocity and K wt was due to a combination of xylem cavitation and stomatal closure. Our results suggest that warm droughts greatly amplify the degree of trees' physiological stress and can lead to mortality. Given the extreme nature of the 2015–2016 El Niño and that temperatures are predicted to increase, this work can serve as a case study of the possible impact climate warming can have on tropical trees. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Summary Amazonian droughts are increasing in frequency and severity. However, little is known about how this may influence species‐specific vulnerability to drought across different ecosystem types. We measured 16 functional traits for 16 congeneric species from six families and eight genera restricted to floodplain, swamp, white‐sand or plateau forests of Central Amazonia. We investigated whether habitat distributions can be explained by species hydraulic strategies, and if habitat specialists differ in their vulnerability to embolism that would make water transport difficult during drought periods. We found strong functional differences among species. Nonflooded species had higher wood specific gravity and lower stomatal density, whereas flooded species had wider vessels, and higher leaf and xylem hydraulic conductivity. The P50 values (water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity) of nonflooded species were significantly more negative than flooded species. However, we found no differences in hydraulic safety margin among species, suggesting that all trees may be equally likely to experience hydraulic failure during severe droughts. Water availability imposes a strong selection leading to differentiation of plant hydraulic strategies among species and may underlie patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera. Our results have important implications for modeling species distribution and resilience under future climate scenarios.

Prolonged drought stress combined with high leaf temperatures can induce programmed leaf senescence involving lipid peroxidation, and the loss of net carbon assimilation during early stages of tree mortality. Periodic droughts are known to induce widespread tree mortality in the Amazon rainforest, but little is known about the role of lipid peroxidation during drought-induced leaf senescence. In this study, we present observations of green leaf volatile (GLV) emissions during membrane peroxidation processes associated with the combined effects of high leaf temperatures and drought-induced leaf senescence from individual detached leaves and a rainforest ecosystem in the central Amazon. Temperature-dependent leaf emissions of volatile terpenoids were observed during the morning, and together with transpiration and net photosynthesis, showed a post-midday depression. This post-midday depression was associated with a stimulation of C5 and C6 GLV emissions, which continued to increase throughout the late afternoon in a temperature-independent fashion. During the 2010 drought in the Amazon Basin, which resulted in widespread tree mortality, green leaf volatile emissions (C6 GLVs) were observed to build up within the forest canopy atmosphere, likely associated with high leaf temperatures and enhanced drought-induced leaf senescence processes. The results suggest that observations of GLVs in the tropical boundary layer could be used as a chemical sensor of reduced ecosystem productivity associated with drought stress.

Tree mortality is a critical process in forest ecosystems, as it influences floristic composition, structure, dynamics, carbon storage, and forest nutrient cycling. However, the mechanisms behind tree death in tropical regions are still poorly characterized. This lack of information is mainly because tree mortality data come from long-interval inventories and studies that measured tree death seasonally are scarce. Here we offer novel insights into the power of fine temporal scale observations and we use a natural history approach to understand the processes and mechanism of tree mortality. We monitored tree mortality every month during one year, in 10 ha of terra-firme forest. To determine the pathways of mortality, we considered the state of the tree at the start of the investigation and the pre and post-mortem characteristics. From November 2010 to October 2011, 67 out of 5808 trees died. Despite the 2010 drought, mortality was highly correlated with monthly rainfall (r = 0.85). In total, six pathways of mortality were assessed. Storms were the main cause of mortality, killing 45% of all dead trees, followed by Biotic/abiotic factors accounting for 30% of tree mortality. The high mortality registered in the rainy season was mostly (78%) due to healthy trees dying uprooted or snapped. Finally, we would benefit from studies that assess mortality on a monthly basis and in combination with quantitative long-term data, we can substantially improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind tree death in the tropics.