: In this study, global climate change scenario by HadGEM2-AO is dynamically downscaled using 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) -East Asia. All RCMs with 50-km horizontal resolution are integrated for continuous 71 years . In the evaluation of historical runs, all models tend to overestimate precipitation over the subtropical western North Pacific. For the surface air temperature, all models have cold biases over the East Asian continent compared to the observation. In the future projections, all models show similar changes in precipitation such as increasing precipitation over the tropical oceans and slightly decreasing precipitation over the East China Sea. In the mid-latitudes, convective precipitation tends to increase due to the enhanced convective instability, while non-convective precipitation tends to decrease slightly due to the changes in subtropical high and monsoon circulation. For surface air temperature, the warming tendency over the entire domain is captured by all models and it is larger in high latitude regions. The warming temperature is related to the increase in longwave radiation, which leads to prominent increase in minimum surface air temperature.
Background: High-fidelity meteorological data is a prerequisite for the realistic simulation of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials near nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, many meteorological models frequently overestimate near-surface wind speeds, failing to represent local meteorological conditions near NPPs. This study presents a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km) meteorological downscaling method for modeling short-range (< 100 km) atmospheric dispersion of accidental NPP plumes.Materials and Methods: Six considerations from literature reviews have been suggested for a new dynamic downscaling method. The dynamic downscaling method is developed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1, applying high-resolution land-use and topography data. In addition, a new subgrid-scale topographic drag parameterization has been implemented for a realistic representation of the atmospheric surface-layer momentum transfer. Finally, a year-long simulation for the Kori and Wolsong NPPs, located in southeastern coastal areas, has been made for 2016 and evaluated against operational surface meteorological measurements and the NPPs’ on-site weather stations.Results and Discussion: The new dynamic downscaling method can represent multiscale atmospheric motions from the synoptic to the boundary-layer scales and produce three-dimensional local meteorological fields near the NPPs with a 1.2 km grid resolution. Comparing the year-long simulation against the measurements showed a salient improvement in simulating near-surface wind fields by reducing the root mean square error of approximately 1 m/s. Furthermore, the improved wind field simulation led to a better agreement in the Eulerian estimate of the local atmospheric dispersion. The new subgrid-scale topographic drag parameterization was essential for improved performance, suggesting the importance of the subgrid-scale momentum interactions in the atmospheric surface layer.Conclusion: A new dynamic downscaling method has been developed to produce high-resolution local meteorological fields around the Kori and Wolsong NPPs, which can be used in short-range atmospheric dispersion modeling near the NPPs.
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