Mangrove soils represent a large sink for otherwise rapidly recycled carbon (C). However, widespread deforestation threatens the preservation of this important C stock. It is therefore imperative that global patterns in mangrove soil C stocks and their susceptibility to remineralization are understood. Here, we present patterns in mangrove soil C stocks across hemispheres, latitudes, countries and mangrove community compositions, and estimate potential annual CO2 emissions for countries where mangroves occur. Global potential CO2 emissions from soils as a result of mangrove loss were estimated to be ∼7.0 Tg CO2 e yr-1. Countries with the highest potential CO2 emissions from soils are Indonesia (3,410 Gg CO2 e yr-1) and Malaysia (1,288 Gg CO2 e yr-1). The patterns described serve as a baseline by which countries can assess their mangrove soil C stocks and potential emissions from mangrove deforestation. © 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved

[1] Mangrove wetlands exist in the transition zone between terrestrial and marine environments and as such were historically overlooked in discussions of terrestrial and marine carbon cycling. In recent decades, mangroves have increasingly been credited with producing and burying large quantities of organic carbon (OC). The amount of available data regarding OC burial in mangrove soils has more than doubled since the last primary literature review (2003). This includes data from some of the largest, most developed mangrove forests in the world, providing an opportunity to strengthen the global estimate. First-time representation is now included for mangroves in Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Indonesia, China, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand, along with additional data from Mexico and the United States. Our objective is to recalculate the centennial-scale burial rate of OC at both the local and global scales. Quantification of this rate enables better understanding of the current carbon sink capacity of mangroves as well as helps to quantify and/or validate the other aspects of the mangrove carbon budget such as import, export, and remineralization. Statistical analysis of the data supports use of the geometric mean as the most reliable central tendency measurement. Our estimate is that mangrove systems bury 163 (+40; À31) g OC m À2 yr À1 (95% C.I.). Globally, the 95% confidence interval for the annual burial rate is 26.1 (+6.3; À5.1) Tg OC. This equates to a burial fraction that is 42% larger than that of the most recent mangrove carbon budget (2008), and represents 10-15% of estimated annual mangrove production. This global rate supports previous conclusions that, on a centennial time scale, 8-15% of all OC burial in marine settings occurs in mangrove systems.

With the growing recognition that effective action on climate change will require a combination of emissions reductions and carbon sequestration, protecting, enhancing and restoring natural carbon sinks have become political priorities. Mangrove forests are considered some of the most carbon-dense ecosystems in the world with most of the carbon stored in the soil. In order for mangrove forests to be included in climate mitigation efforts, knowledge of the spatial distribution of mangrove soil carbon stocks are critical. Current global estimates do not capture enough of the finer scale variability that would be required to inform local decisions on siting protection and restoration projects. To close this knowledge gap, we have compiled a large georeferenced database of mangrove soil carbon measurements and developed a novel machine-learning based statistical model of the distribution of carbon density using spatially comprehensive data at a 30 m resolution. This model, which included a prior estimate of soil carbon from the global SoilGrids 250 m model, was able to capture 63% of the vertical and horizontal variability in soil organic carbon density (RMSE of 10.9 kg m −3 ). Of the local variables, total suspended sediment load and Landsat imagery were the most important variable explaining soil carbon density. Projecting this model across the global mangrove forest distribution for the year 2000 yielded an estimate of 6.4 Pg C for the top meter of soil with an 86-729 Mg C ha −1 range across all pixels. By utilizing remotely-sensed mangrove forest cover change data, loss of soil carbon due to mangrove habitat loss between 2000 and 2015 was 30-122 Tg C with >75% of this loss attributable to Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar. The resulting map products

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Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO2 emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5–11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70–185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055–1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO2 emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1–3.1 Tg CO2-e yr-1, increasing annual CO2 emissions from land use change in Australia by 12–21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.