SUMMARY We investigate whether return volatility is predictable by macroeconomic and financial variables to shed light on the economic drivers of financial volatility. Our approach is distinct owing to its comprehensiveness: First, we employ a data‐rich forecast methodology to handle a large set of potential predictors in a Bayesian model‐averaging approach and, second, we take a look at multiple asset classes (equities, foreign exchange, bonds and commodities) over long time spans. We find that proxies for credit risk and funding liquidity consistently show up as common predictors of volatility across asset classes. Variables capturing time‐varying risk premia also perform well as predictors of volatility. While forecasts by macro‐finance augmented models also achieve forecasting gains out‐of‐sample relative to autoregressive benchmarks, the performance varies across asset classes and over time. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

No abstract

There is a growing evidence base for preconception care - – the provision of biomedical, behavioral and social interventions to women and couples before conception occurs. Firstly, there is evidence that health problems, problem behaviours and individual and environmental risks contribute to poor maternal and child health outcomes. Secondly, there are biomedical, behavioural and social interventions that when delivered before conception occurs, effectively address many of these health problems, problem behaviours and risk factors. And thirdly, there is emerging experience of how to deliver these interventions in low and middle income countries (LMIC).The preconception care interventions delivered and whom they are delivered to, will need to be tailored to local realities. The package of preconception care interventions delivered in a particular setting will depend on the local epidemiology, the interventions already being delivered, and the resources in place to deliver additional interventions. Although a range of population groups could benefit from preconception care, prioritization based on need and feasibility will be needed.There are both potential benefits and risks associated with preconception care. Preconception care could result in large health and social benefits in LMIC. It could also be misused to limit the autonomy of women and reinforce the notion that the focus of all efforts to improve the health of girls and women should be at improving maternal and child health outcomes rather than at improving the health of girls and women as individuals in their own right.There are challenges in delivering preconception care. While the potential benefits of preconception care programmes could be substantial, extending the traditional Maternal and Child Health package will be both a logistic and financial challenge.We need to help countries set and achieve pragmatic and meaningful short term goals. While our long-term goal for preconception care should be for a full package of health and social interventions to be delivered to all women and couples of reproductive age everywhere, our short-term goals must be pragmatic. This is because countries that need preconception care most are the ones least likely to be able to afford them and deliver them. If we want these countries to take on the additional challenge of providing preconception care while they struggle to increase the coverage of prenatal care, skilled care at birth etc., we must help them identify and deliver a small number of effective interventions based on epidemiology and feasibility.

No abstract

No abstract

We explain the currency carry trade (CT) performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical CT strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean reverting in regimes of high foreign exchange volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the CT performance is better explained by a timevarying systematic risk that increases in volatile markets, suggesting a partial resolution of the uncovered interest parity puzzle.

A unique data set enables us to test the hypothesis that due to informational advantages economists are more likely to hold stocks than otherwise identical investors. We confirm that economists have a significantly higher probability of participating in the stock market than investors with any other education, even when controlling for several background characteristics. We make use of a large register-based panel data set containing detailed information on the educational attainments and various financial and socioeconomic variables. We model the stock market participation decision by the probit model. The results are shown to be highly robust to various assumptions, including unobserved individual heterogeneity and instrumental variables estimation.

On 17 November 2011, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution (A/RES/66/170) designating 11 October as the first International Day of the Girl Child choosing ending child marriages as the theme of the day. Child marriage is a fundamental human rights violation and impacts all aspects of a girl’s life. These marriages deny a girl of her childhood, disrupts her education, limits her opportunities, increases her risk of violence and abuse, and jeopardizes her health. The article presents data about the prevalence and effects, contributing factors and recommends action for prevention.