Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44% of the population had detectable immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality.

We study exciton polaritons in a two-dimensional Lieb lattice of micropillars. The energy spectrum of the system features two flat bands formed from S and P_{x,y} photonic orbitals, into which we trigger bosonic condensation under high power excitation. The symmetry of the orbital wave functions combined with photonic spin-orbit coupling gives rise to emission patterns with pseudospin texture in the flat band condensates. Our Letter shows the potential of polariton lattices for emulating flat band Hamiltonians with spin-orbit coupling, orbital degrees of freedom, and interactions.

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly modelled the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We used changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Nationally, we estimated 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the population had been infected by 1st June 2020, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We also demonstrated that good model forecasts of deaths for the next 3 weeks with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.

Estimating mortality attributable to different diseases, risk factors, or events is pivotal to inform resource allocation and evaluate public health interventions. Information on death rates and burden also supports wider aims of societal governance, public accountability, and memorialisation. Recent examples of mortality estimation include the true toll of hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, 1 mortality during famine in Somalia, 2 and the war in South Sudan. 3 Mortality data have also been essential in understanding the spread of covid-19. However, under-reporting in official death records has greatly obscured this understanding. We explore why under-reporting of deaths should have been expected, examine how use of alternative mortality sources can help advocate for a more equitable pandemic response, and highlight the crucial need for increased investment into civil registration and vital statistics systems before the next pandemic.

In April 2021, after successfully enduring three waves of the SARS-CoV2 pandemic in 2020, and having reached population seropositivity of about 50%, Delhi, the national capital of India was overwhelmed by the fourth wave. Here, we trace viral, host, and social factors contributing to the scale and exponent of the fourth wave, when compared to preceding waves, in an epidemiological context. Genomic surveillance data from Delhi and surrounding states shows an early phase of the upsurge driven by the entry of the more transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) into the region in January, with at least one B.1.1.7 super spreader event in February 2021, relatable to known mass gatherings over this period. This was followed by seeding of the B.1.617 VOC, which too is highly transmissible, with rapid expansion of B.1.617.2 sub-lineage outpacing all other lineages. This unprecedented growth of cases occurred in the background of high seropositivity, but with low median neutralizing antibody levels, in a serially sampled cohort. Vaccination breakthrough cases over this period were noted, disproportionately related to VOC in sequenced cases, but usually mild. We find that this surge of SARS-CoV2 infections in Delhi is best explained by the introduction of a new highly transmissible VOC, B.1.617.2, with likely immune-evasion properties; insufficient neutralizing immunity, despite high seropositivity; and social behavior that promoted transmission.