1] Biogenic isoprene plays an important role in tropospheric chemistry. Current isoprene emission estimates are highly uncertain because of a lack of direct observations. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a high-yield product of isoprene oxidation. The short photochemical lifetime of HCHO allows the observation of this trace gas to help constrain isoprene emissions. We use HCHO column observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME). These global data are particularly useful for studying large isoprene emissions from the tropics, where in situ observations are sparse. Using the global Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) chemical transport model as the forward model, a Bayesian inversion of GOME HCHO observations from September 1996 to August 1997 is conducted to calculate global isoprene emissions. Column contributions to HCHO from 10 biogenic sources, in addition to biomass-burning and industrial sources, are considered. The inversion of these 12 HCHO sources is conducted separately for eight geographical regions (North America, Europe, east Asia, India, Southeast Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia). GOME measurements with high signal-to-noise ratios are used. The a priori simulation greatly underestimates global HCHO columns over the eight geographical regions (bias, À14 to À46%; R = 0.52-0.84). The a posteriori solution shows generally higher isoprene and biomass-burning emissions, and these emissions reduce the model biases for all regions (bias, À3.6 to À25%; R = 0.56-0.84). The negative bias in the a posteriori estimate reflects in part the uncertainty in GOME measurements. The a posteriori estimate of the annual global isoprene emissions of 566 Tg C yr À1 is $50% larger than the a priori estimate. This increase of global isoprene emissions significantly affects tropospheric chemistry, decreasing the global mean OH concentration by 10.8% to 0.95 Â 10 6 molecules/cm 3 . The atmospheric lifetime of CH 3 CCl 3 increases from 5.2 to 5.7 years.
Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and ammonia (NH 3 ), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH 3 , SO 2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.
[1] Tropospheric O 3 columns retrieved from OMI and MLS measurements, NO 2 columns from OMI, and upper tropospheric O 3 concentrations from TES over North America and the western North Atlantic from April to August 2005 are analyzed using the Regional chEmical and trAnsport Model (REAM). Large enhancements of column and upper tropospheric O 3 over the western North Atlantic comparable to those over the eastern United States are found in the satellite measurements and REAM simulations. The O 3 enhancement region migrates northward from spring to summer. Model analysis indicates that the northward migration is driven by seasonal shifts of O 3 transported from the stratosphere and that produced through photochemistry from surface emissions and lightning NOx. As their uncertainties improve, satellite measurements of O 3 and its precursors will be able to provide more quantitative constraints on pollutant outflow from the continents.
SO2 column densities from Ozone Monitoring Instrument provide important information on emission trends and missing sources, but there are discrepancies between different retrieval products. We employ three Ozone Monitoring Instrument SO2 retrieval products (National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) standard (SP), NASA prototype, and BIRA) to study the magnitude and trend of SO2 emissions. SO2 column densities from these retrievals are most consistent when viewing angles and solar zenith angles are small, suggesting more robust emission estimates in summer and at low latitudes. We then apply a hybrid 4D‐Var/mass balance emission inversion to derive monthly SO2 emissions from the NASA SP and BIRA products. Compared to HTAPv2 emissions in 2010, both posterior emission estimates are lower in United States, India, and Southeast China, but show different changes of emissions in North China Plain. The discrepancies between monthly NASA and BIRA posterior emissions in 2010 are less than or equal to 17% in China and 34% in India. SO2 emissions increase from 2005 to 2016 by 35% (NASA)–48% (BIRA) in India, but decrease in China by 23% (NASA)–33% (BIRA) since 2008. Compared to in situ measurements, the posterior GEOS‐Chem surface SO2 concentrations have reduced NMB in China, the United States, and India but not in South Korea in 2010. BIRA posteriors have better consistency with the annual growth rate of surface SO2 measurement in China and spatial variability of SO2 concentration in China, South Korea, and India, whereas NASA SP posteriors have better seasonality. These evaluations demonstrate the capability to recover SO2 emissions using Ozone Monitoring Instrument observations.
We assess the impact of transport of pollution from midlatitudes on the abundance of ozone in the Arctic in summer 2006 using the GEOS‐Chem global chemical transport model and its adjoint. We find that although the impact of midlatitude emissions on ozone abundances in the Arctic is at a maximum in fall and winter, in July transport from North America, Asia, and Europe together contributed about 25% of surface ozone abundances in the Arctic. Throughout the summer, the dominant source of ozone in the Arctic troposphere was photochemical production within the Arctic, which accounted for more than 50% of the ozone in the Arctic boundary layer and as much as 30%–40% of the ozone in the middle troposphere. An adjoint sensitivity analysis of the impact of NOx emissions on ozone at Alert shows that on synoptic time scales in both the lower and middle troposphere, ozone abundances are more sensitive to emissions between 50°N and 70°N, with important influences from anthropogenic, biomass burning, soil, and lightning sources. Although local surface NOx emissions contribute to ozone formation, transport of NOx in the form of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) from outside the Arctic and from the upper troposphere also contributed to ozone production in the lower troposphere. We find that in late May and June the release of NOx from PAN decomposition accounted for 93% and 55% of ozone production at the Arctic surface, respectively.
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