We quantitatively assess the main sources offertility fluctuations in China and find that only prqerence ships, involving education, health care and the employment and social status 4 women, can generate a statistically significant long-run decline in fertility growth. However, the government's eercement power can explain some short-run movements in fertility. To examine the @ect sf key variables, we mod& a growth model with endogenous fertility to represent the average rural household's fertility decisions under government imposed constraints. The model provides the structure necessa y to econometrically identtf) shocks to government enforcement ability, agricultural output and prq%rences toward fertility.
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