We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies-forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus-in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming from the effective lower bond on nominal interest rates. In particular, we focus on the euro area economy and examine, using the ECB's New Area-Wide Model, the consequences of the lower bound both for the near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low-real-interest-rate world. Our findings suggest that, if unaddressed, the lower bound can have very substantial costs in terms of worsened macroeconomic performance. Forward guidance, if fully credible, is most powerful and can largely undo the distortionary effects due to the lower bound. A combination of imperfectly credible forward guidance, asset purchases and fiscal stimulus is almost equally effective, in particular when asset purchases enhance the credibility of the forward guidance policy via a signalling effect.JEL Classification System: E31, E32, E37, E52, E62

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The last review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in 2003 followed a period of predominantly upside risks to price stability. Experience following the 2008 financial crisis has focused renewed attention on the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should best interact, in particular in an environment of structurally low interest rates and persistent downside risks to price stability. This debate has been further intensified by the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the euro area, the unique architecture of a monetary union consisting of sovereign Member States, with cross-country heterogeneities and weaknesses in its overall construction, poses important challenges.12 Tax policy may also substitute interest rate policy to change real interest rates (the cost of current consumption in terms of future consumption), even in the case of balanced budgets. See Feldstein (2002) and Correia et al. (2013).

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