Musculoskeletal pain affects approximately 20% of the population worldwide and represents one of the leading causes of global disability. As yet, precise mechanisms underlying the development of musculoskeletal pain and transition to chronicity remain unclear, though individual factors such as sleep quality, physical activity, affective state, pain catastrophizing and psychophysical pain sensitivity have all been suggested to be involved. This study aimed to investigate whether factors at baseline could predict musculoskeletal pain intensity to an experimental delayed onset of muscle soreness (DOMS) pain model. Demographics, physical activity, pain catastrophizing, affective state, sleep quality, isometric force production, temporal summation of pain, and psychophysical pain sensitivity using handheld and cuff algometry were assessed at baseline (Day-0) and two days after (Day-2) in 28 healthy participants. DOMS was induced on Day-0 by completing eccentric calf raises on the non-dominant leg to fatigue. On Day-2, participants rated pain on muscle contraction (visual analogue scale, VAS, 0-10cm) and function (Likert scale, 0–6). DOMS resulted in non-dominant calf pain at Day-2 (3.0±2.3cm), with significantly reduced isometric force production (P<0.043) and handheld pressure pain thresholds (P<0.010) at Day-2 compared to Day-0. Linear regression models using backward selection predicted from 39.3% (P<0.003) of VAS to 57.7% (P<0.001) of Likert score variation in DOMS pain intensity and consistently included cuff pressure pain tolerance threshold (P<0.01), temporal summation of pain (P<0.04), and age (P<0.02) as independent predictive factors. The findings indicate that age, psychological and central pain mechanistic factors are consistently associated with pain following acute muscle injury.
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