No abstract

A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980. The rainfall intensityduration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions, the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23-27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not available..

In humid uplands landsliding is the dominant mass wasting process. In the western Southern Alps of New Zealand landslides are scale invariant and have a power-law magnitude frequency distribution. Independent studies from other regions suggest that this is a general property of landsliding. This observation is of critical importance to the evaluation of the impact of events of different length scales over different time intervals on landscape evolution. It is particularly useful when estimating regional geomorphic rates, because it constrains the frequency and overall significance of extreme events, which cannot otherwise be evaluated. By integrating the complete response of the system, we estimate the regional denudation rate due to landsliding to be 9 ± 4 mm yr -1 . Sediment discharge from the western Southern Alps is dominated by landslide-derived material.

The erosion of mountain belts controls their topographic and structural evolution and is the main source of sediment delivered to the oceans. Mountain erosion rates have been estimated from current relief and precipitation, but a more complete evaluation of the controls on erosion rates requires detailed measurements across a range of timescales. Here we report erosion rates in the Taiwan mountains estimated from modern river sediment loads, Holocene river incision and thermochronometry on a million-year scale. Estimated erosion rates within the actively deforming mountains are high (3-6 mm yr(-1)) on all timescales, but the pattern of erosion has changed over time in response to the migration of localized tectonic deformation. Modern, decadal-scale erosion rates correlate with historical seismicity and storm-driven runoff variability. The highest erosion rates are found where rapid deformation, high storm frequency and weak substrates coincide, despite low topographic relief.

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Abstract.Landslide size distributions generally exhibit power-law scaling over a limited scale range. The range is set by the mapping resolution, by the number of observed events, and by the slope failure process itself. This property of self-similarity is an important insight into the physics of hillslope failure. Typically, however, a large proportion of the landslide data does not fit a simple power law. These data are always ignored in order to characterize the scaling.We show that landslide data sets from New Zealand and Taiwan exhibit two scaling regimes, separated by a crossover scale that is purely an artefact of mapping resolution. Below this scale the landslide data are undersampled. We propose a general model for the size distribution of observed landslides which can account for the whole population of mapped slope failures. The model quantifies the undersampling of smaller landslides and provides an improved estimation of the power-law scaling of larger landslides. Estimates of this scaling suggest that the area disturbed by landsliding, and perhaps the landslide sediment yield, are essentially dependent on the frequency of smaller landslides. Higher resolution landslide maps will be required in order to quantify these fluxes. Our results also indicate that the probability of extreme landslide events is less than previous studies would predict.

A strong coupling between hillslope and valley systems is often inferred for mountain landscapes dominated by bedrock landsliding. We reveal the nature of this link using data sets on landsliding and sediment transport from two montane catchments draining the eastern Central Range of Taiwan. Here, the magnitude-frequency distribution of landslides can be modeled by a robust power law, but this scale invariance is not mirrored in the sediment discharge at the mountain front. Instead, downstream sediment loads reflect a complex response to both sediment supply and ambient hydraulic conditions. The rivers do not transport significant amounts of sediment unless it is provided by hillslope mass wasting in the catchment. Removal of landslide debris is a function of the transport capacity of the stream at the site of entry; thus, there is a dual supply and transport control on sediment loads in bedrock-floored streams. Over a monitoring period of >25 yr, the bulk of the sediment leaving the mountain belt was supplied by climate-triggered mass wasting. Peaks in water discharge were always closely followed by sediment load maxima, and the rapid decay of the latter indicates an effective removal of most supply. Where an important part of a catchment's sediment yield is derived from interfluves, sediment transport cannot simply be estimated from known water discharge time series, using a sediment rating curve, but requires instead a detailed knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of hillslope mass wasting and sediment transfer into the fluvial system.

Catastrophic landslides involve the acceleration and deceleration of millions of tons of rock and debris in response to the forces of gravity and dissipation. Their unpredictability and frequent location in remote areas have made observations of their dynamics rare. Through real-time detection and inverse modeling of teleseismic data, we show that landslide dynamics are primarily determined by the length scale of the source mass. When combined with geometric constraints from satellite imagery, the seismically determined landslide force histories yield estimates of landslide duration, momenta, potential energy loss, mass, and runout trajectory. Measurements of these dynamical properties for 29 teleseismogenic landslides are consistent with a simple acceleration model in which height drop and rupture depth scale with the length of the failing slope.