Potato tuber yield were simulated at Jorhat, Assam under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080 using DSSAT SUBSTOR-Potato model. The model was calibrated and validated for three potato cultivars, viz., Kufri Jyoti, Kufri Pokhraj and Kufri Himalini with the experimental data collected during 2014-15 and 2015-16. Results revealed that if planting is delayed beyond November, all these cultivars are likely to record drastic reduction in tuber yield. Cultivar Kufri Himalini may incur tuber yield loss of 64 per cent in 2020 to 75 per cent in 2080, followed by Kufri Jyoti (57.6% in 2020 to 71.5% in 2080) and Kufri Pokhraj (45.2% in 2020 to 56.2% in 2080). Among the cultivars, Kufri Pokhraj may remain a viable cultivar up to 2050, but Kufri Himalini may lose its sustainability by 2020 itself. Hence, adjustment of planting time and development of improved adaptive potato cultivarsonly will ascertai n future potato production in this region.
Impact of climate change on rice yield variabilities under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) has been estimated for Jorhat district, under Upper Brahmaputra Valley Agroclimatic Zone of Assam. CERES-Rice module of DSSAT 4.5 was calibrated and validated for rice cultivar ‘Mahsuri’ under three different dates of transplanting between May and July. Increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures at Jorhat, under all the RCPs for 2020, 2050 and 2080, suggests increasing level of heat stress during crop growth period. The deviations in projected grain yield over observed mean yield of 2009-2013 was found ranging from -12.7 to -43.4 per cent under all the scenario and dates of transplanting. Among all the climate scenarios, the reduction in grain yield was highest (-43.4%) under RCP 8.5 and lowest (-12.7%) under RCP 2.6.The mean yield reduction, considering all scenarios together, was highest in second transplanting date(-38.5%), followed by third(-28.8%) and first one (-23.3%).
Three years of field trial along with DSSAT v4.6 CERES-Rice model-based simulation experiment was carried out to study the impact of climate change on Sali rice yield under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the agro-climatic conditions of Jorhat, Assam. Field experiments were conducted during kharif, 2017, 2018 and 2019 at the Instructional-Cum-Research (ICR) farm of Assam Agricultural University, Jorhat with three varieties viz., Mahsuri (150 days), Swarna Sub-1 (140-145 days) and TTB-404 (140-145 days); transplanted under three different micro-climatic regimes created by manipulating date of transplanting i.e., 26th June (early), 11th July (mid) and 26th July (late) under split plot experimental design with four replications. The validated model showed a good agreement for estimation of days required to attain different phenological stages with RMSE value 3.5, 2.9 and 2.9 days for Swarna sub-1; 2.4, 3.3 and 4.1 days for Mahsuri and 3.7, 2.6 and 2.4 days for TTB-404, respectively for panicle initiation, anthesis and physiological maturity. The overall d-stat value varied within 0.53 to 0.85 for phenology and 0.68 to 0.79 for grain yield. The ensemble weather data under four RCPs revealed an increase in mean maximum (0.3 to 3.0°C) and minimum (0.8 to 3.5°C) temperatures along with rainfall (11.8 to 43.4%) during the crop growing period compared to experimentation period (i.e. 2017-19) in three projected years. The grain yield of Sali rice showed positive deviation in all four RCPs and projected years under successive transplanting dates. The overall results reveal an increase in mean temperature up to 3°C during the crop growing period has no substantial adverse impact on grain yield of Sali rice under the agro-climatic condition of Jorhat, Assam.
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