BackgroundMalaria burden in Uganda has declined disproportionately among regions despite overall high intervention coverage across all regions. The Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) 2014–15 was the second nationally representative survey conducted to provide estimates of malaria prevalence among children less than 5 years, and to track the progress of control interventions in the country. In this present study, 2014–15 MIS data were analysed to assess intervention effects on malaria prevalence in Uganda among children less than 5 years, assess intervention effects at regional level, and estimate geographical distribution of malaria prevalence in the country.MethodsBayesian geostatistical models with spatially varying coefficients were used to determine the effect of interventions on malaria prevalence at national and regional levels. Spike-and-slab variable selection was used to identify the most important predictors and forms. Bayesian kriging was used to predict malaria prevalence at unsampled locations.ResultsIndoor Residual Spraying (IRS) and Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN) ownership had a significant but varying protective effect on malaria prevalence. However, no effect was observed for Artemisinin Combination-based Therapies (ACTs). Environmental factors, namely, land cover, rainfall, day and night land surface temperature, and area type were significantly associated with malaria prevalence. Malaria prevalence was higher in rural areas, increased with the child’s age, and decreased with higher household socioeconomic status and higher level of mother’s education. The highest prevalence of malaria in children less than 5 years was predicted for regions of East Central, North East and West Nile, whereas the lowest was predicted in Kampala and South Western regions, and in the mountainous areas in Mid-Western and Mid-Eastern regions.ConclusionsIRS and ITN ownership are important interventions against malaria prevalence in children less than 5 years in Uganda. The varying effects of the interventions calls for selective implementation of control tools suitable to regional ecological settings. To further reduce malaria burden and sustain malaria control in Uganda, current tools should be supplemented by health system strengthening, and socio-economic development.
BackgroundIn Uganda, malaria vector control interventions and case management with Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) have been scaled up over the last few years as a result of increased funding. Data on parasitaemia prevalence among children less than 5 years old and coverage of interventions was collected during the first two Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) conducted in 2009 and 2014, respectively. In this study, we quantify the effects of control interventions on parasitaemia risk changes between the two MIS in a spatio-temporal analysis.MethodsBayesian geostatistical and temporal models were fitted on the MIS data of 2009 and 2014. The models took into account geographical misalignment in the locations of the two surveys and adjusted for climatic changes and socio-economic differentials. Parasitaemia risk was predicted over a 2 × 2 km2 grid and the number of infected children less than 5 years old was estimated. Geostatistical variable selection was applied to identify the most important ITN coverage indicators. A spatially varying coefficient model was used to estimate intervention effects at sub-national level.ResultsThe coverage of Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) and ACTs more than doubled at country and sub-national levels during the period 2009–2014. The coverage of Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) remained static at all levels. ITNs, IRS, and ACTs were associated with a reduction in parasitaemia odds of 19% (95% BCI: 18–29%), 78% (95% BCI: 67–84%), and 34% (95% BCI: 28–66%), respectively. Intervention effects varied with region. Higher socio-economic status and living in urban areas were associated with parasitaemia odds reduction of 46% (95% BCI: 0.51–0.57) and 57% (95% BCI: 0.40–0.53), respectively. The probability of parasitaemia risk decline in the country was 85% and varied from 70% in the North-East region to 100% in Kampala region. The estimated number of children infected with malaria declined from 2,480,373 in 2009 to 825,636 in 2014.ConclusionsInterventions have had a strong effect on the decline of parasitaemia risk in Uganda during 2009–2014, albeit with varying magnitude in the regions. This success should be sustained by optimizing ITN coverage to achieve universal coverage.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi: 10.1186/s13071-017-2393-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
There is paucity of evidence for the role of health service delivery to the malaria decline in Uganda We developed a methodology to quantify health facility readiness and assessed its role on severe malaria outcomes among lower-level facilities (HCIIIs and HCIIs) in the country. Malaria data was extracted from the Health Management Information System (HMIS). General service and malaria-specific readiness indicators were obtained from the 2013 Uganda service delivery indicator survey. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to construct a composite facility readiness score based on multiple factorial axes. Geostatistical models assessed the effect of facility readiness on malaria deaths and severe cases. Malaria readiness was achieved in one-quarter of the facilities. The composite readiness score explained 48% and 46% of the variation in the original indicators compared to 23% and 27%, explained by the first axis alone for HCIIIs and HCIIs, respectively. Mortality rate was 64% (IRR = 0.36, 95% BCI: 0.14–0.61) and 68% (IRR = 0.32, 95% BCI: 0.12–0.54) lower in the medium and high compared to low readiness groups, respectively. A composite readiness index is more informative and consistent than the one based on the first MCA factorial axis. In Uganda, higher facility readiness is associated with a reduced risk of severe malaria outcomes.
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