ABSTRACT. This paper covers three different methods of matching radiocarbon dates to the 'wiggles' of the calibration curve in those situations where the age difference between the 14 C dates is known. These methods are most often applied to tree-ring sequences. The simplest approach is to use a classical Chi-squared fit of the 14 C data to the 14 C curve. This gives the calendar date where the data fit best and allows tests of how good the fit is. The only drawback of this method is that it is difficult to ascertain the uncertainty in the date found in this way. An extension of this technique uses a Monte-Carlo simulation to sample possible 14 C concentrations consistent with the measurement made and for each of these possibilities performs a Chi-squared fit. This method yields a distribution of values in the calendrical time-scale, from which the overall dating uncertainty can be derived. A third, rather different approach, based on Bayesian statistics, calculates the relative likelihood of each possible calendar year fit. This can then be used to calculate a range of most likely dates in a similar way to the probability method of 14 C calibration. The theories underlying all three methods are discussed in this paper and a comparison made for the fitting of specific model sequences. All three methods are found to give consistent results and the application of any one of them depends on the nature of the scientific question being addressed.
We explore the hypothesis that the abrupt drainage of Laurentide lakes and associated rapid switch of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation 8200 yr ago had a catastrophic influence on Neolithic civilisation in large parts of southeastern Europe, Anatolia, Cyprus, and the Near East. The event at 8200 cal yr BP is observed in a large number of high-resolution climate proxies in the Northern Hemisphere, and in many cases corresponds to markedly cold and arid conditions. We identify the relevant archaeological levels of major Neolithic settlements in Central Anatolia, Cyprus, Greece and Bulgaria, and examine published stratigraphic, architectural, cultural and geoarchaeological studies for these sites. The specific archaeological events and processes we observe at a number of these sites during the study interval 8400-8000 cal yr BP lead us to refine some previously established Neolithisation models. The introduction of farming to South-East Europe occurs in all study regions (Thrace, Macedonia, Thessaly, Bulgaria) near 8200 cal yr BP. We observe major disruptions of Neolithic cultures in the Levant, North Syria, South-East Anatolia, Central Anatolia and Cyprus, at the same time. We conclude that the 8200 cal yr BP aridity event triggered the spread of early farmers, by different routes, out of West Asia and the Near East into Greece and Bulgaria.
-In this paper we explore the impact of Rapid Climate Change (RCC) on prehistoric communities in the Eastern Mediterranean during the Early and Middle Holocene. Our focus is on the so . Building on these synchronisms, the GISP2 agemodel supplies the following precise time-intervals for archaeological
Within a period of a few weeks toward the end of the Allerød Interstadial, the major Plinian eruption of the Laacher See volcano produced some 20 km3 of eruptiva, covering and preserving the late-glacial landscape in the German Central Rhineland over an area of more than 1000 km2. Correlation of terrestrial archives with the Greenland ice-core records and improved calibration of the radiocarbon timescale permit a precise, accurate age determination of the Laacher See event some 200 yr before the onset of the Younger Dryas cold episode. Carbonized trees and botanical macrofossils preserved by Laacher See Tephra permit detailed regional paleoenvironmental reconstruction and show that open woodland were typical for the cool and humid hemiboreal climatic conditions during the late Allerød. This woodland provided the habitat for a large variety of animal species, documented at both paleontological and Final Paleolithic archeological sites preserved below Laacher See deposits. Of special interest are numerous animal tracks intercalated in Middle Laacher See deposits at the south of the Neuwied Basin. This knowledge may help to evaluate possible supraregional impacts of this volcanic event on northern hemispheric environment and climate during the late Allerød.
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