ABSTRACT. The Cordillera Central in Colombia hosts four important glacier-clad volcanoes, namelyNevado del Ruiz, Nevado de Santa Isabel, Nevado del Tolima and Nevado del Huila. Public and scientific attention has been focused on volcano-glacier hazards in Colombia and worldwide by the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz/Armero catastrophe, the world's largest volcano-glacier disaster. Important volcanological and glaciological studies were undertaken after 1985. However, recent decades have brought strong changes in ice mass extent, volume and structure as a result of atmospheric warming. Population has grown and with it the sizes of numerous communities located around the volcanoes. This study reviews and reassesses the current conditions of and changes in the glaciers, the interaction processes between ice and volcanic activity and the resulting hazards. Results show a considerable hazard potential from Nevados del Ruiz, Tolima and Huila. Explosive activity within environments of snow and ice as well as non-eruption-related mass movements induced by unstable slopes, or steep and fractured glaciers, can produce avalanches that are likely to be transformed into highly mobile debris flows. Such events can have severe consequences for the downstream communities. Integrated monitoring strategies are therefore essential for early detection of emerging activity that may result in hazardous volcano-ice interaction. Corresponding efforts are currently being strengthened within the framework of international programmes.
Nevado del Huila, a glacier-covered volcano in the South of Colombia's Cordillera Central, had not experienced any historical eruptions before 2007. In 2007 and 2008, the volcano erupted with phreatic and phreatomagmatic events which produced lahars with flow volumes of up to about 300 million m 3 causing severe damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. The magnitude of these lahars and the prevailing potential for similar or even larger events, poses significant hazards to local people and makes appropriate modeling a real challenge. In this study, we analyze the recent lahars to better understand the main processes and then model possible scenarios for future events. We used lahar inundation depths, travel duration, and flow deposits to constrain the dimensions of the 2007 event and applied LAHARZ and FLO-2D for lahar modeling. Measured hydrographs, geophone seismic sensor data and calculated peak discharges served as input data for the reconstruction of flow hydrographs and for calibration of the models. For model validation, results were compared with field data collected along the Páez and Simbola Rivers. Based on the results of the 2007 lahar simulation, we modeled lahar scenarios with volumes between 300 million and 1 billion m 3 . The approach presented here represents a feasible solution for modeling high-magnitude flows like lahars and allows an assessment of potential future events and related consequences for population centers downstream of Nevado del Huila.
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