We surveyed morphotectonic markers along the central part of the Gurvan Bulag thrust, a fault that ruptured with the Bogd fault during the Gobi‐Altay earthquake (1957, M 8.3), to document climatic and tectonic processes along the fault for the late Pleistocene‐Holocene period. The markers were dated using 10Be produced in situ. Two major periods of alluviation ended at 131 ± 20 and 16 ± 4.8 ka. These appear to be contemporaneous with global climatic changes at the terminations of marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 and 2. The vertical slip rates, determined from offset measurements and surfaces ages, are 0.14 ± 0.03 mm/yr over the late Pleistocene‐Holocene and between 0.44 ± 0.11 and 1.05 ± 0.25 mm/yr since the end of the late Pleistocene. The higher of these slip rates for the last ∼16 kyr is consistent with paleoseismic investigations along the fault [Prentice et al., 2002], and suggests that, at the end of late Pleistocene, the fault evolved from quiescence to having recurrence intervals of 4.0 ± 1.2 kyr for surface ruptures with ∼4 m vertical offset (similar to that of 1957). The inferred recurrence interval is comparable to that of the Bogd fault (3.7 ± 1.3 kyr) suggesting that the two faults may have ruptured together also earlier during the last ∼16 kyr.
The 1957 Gobi-Altay earthquake was associated with both strike-slip and thrust faulting, processes similar to those along the San Andreas fault and the faults bounding the San Gabriel Mountains just north of Los Angeles, California. Clearly, a major rupture either on the San Andreas fault north of Los Angeles or on the thrust faults bounding the Los Angeles basin poses a serious hazard to inhabitants of that area. By analogy with the Gobi-Altay earthquake, we suggest that simultaneous rupturing of both the San Andreas fault and the thrust faults nearer Los Angeles is a real possibility that amplifies the hazard posed by ruptures on either fault system separately.
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