Abstract. This paper describes the next-generation ocean forecast model for the European north-west shelf, which will become the basis of operational forecasts in 2018. This new system will provide a step change in resolution and therefore our ability to represent small-scale processes. The new model has a resolution of 1.5 km compared with a grid spacing of 7 km in the current operational system. AMM15 (Atlantic Margin Model, 1.5 km) is introduced as a new regional configuration of NEMO v3.6. Here we describe the technical details behind this configuration, with modifications appropriate for the new high-resolution domain. Results from a 30-year non-assimilative run using the AMM15 domain demonstrate the ability of this model to represent the mean state and variability of the region.Overall, there is an improvement in the representation of the mean state across the region, suggesting similar improvements may be seen in the future operational system. However, the reduction in seasonal bias is greater off-shelf than on-shelf. In the North Sea, biases are largely unchanged. Since there has been no change to the vertical resolution or parameterization schemes, performance improvements are not expected in regions where stratification is dominated by vertical processes rather than advection. This highlights the fact that increased horizontal resolution will not lead to domain-wide improvements. Further work is needed to target bias reduction across the north-west shelf region.
Abstract. It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.
Abstract. This paper describes the next generation ocean forecast model for the European North West Shelf, which will become the basis of operational forecasts in 2018. This new system will provide a step change in resolution, and therefore our ability to represent small scale processes. The new model has a resolution of 1.5 km, compared with a grid spacing of 7 km in the current operational system. AMM15 (Atlantic Margin Model, 1.5 km) is introduced as a new regional configuration of NEMO v3.6. Here we describe the technical details behind this configuration, with modifications appropriate for the new high 5 resolution domain. Results from a 30 year non-assimilative run, using the AMM15 domain, demonstrate the ability of this model to represent the mean state and variability of the region.Overall, there is an improvement in the representation of the mean state across the region, suggesting similar improvements may be seen in the future operational system. However, the reduction in seasonal bias is greater off-shelf than on-shelf. In the North Sea, biases are largely unchanged. Since there has been no change to the vertical resolution or parameterisation 10 schemes, performance improvements are not expected in regions where stratification is dominated by vertical processes, rather than advection. This highlights the fact that increased horizontal resolution will not lead to domain-wide improvements. Further work is needed to target bias reduction across the North West Shelf region.
Abstract. It is hypothesised that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, requires a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere-land-ocean-wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-west European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for 6 contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that at least comparable performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and peak wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.
Biophysical models are well-used tools for predicting the dispersal of marine larvae. Larval behavior has been shown to influence dispersal, but how to incorporate behavior effectively within dispersal models remains a challenge. Mechanisms of behavior are often derived from laboratory-based studies and therefore, may not reflect behavior in situ. Here, using state-of-the-art models, we explore the movements that larvae must undertake to achieve the vertical distribution patterns observed in nature. Results suggest that behaviors are not consistent with those described under the tidally synchronized vertical migration (TVM) hypothesis. Instead, we show (i) a need for swimming speed and direction to vary over the tidal cycle and (ii) that, in some instances, larval swimming cannot explain observed vertical patterns. We argue that current methods of behavioral parameterization are limited in their capacity to replicate in situ observations of vertical distribution, which may cause dispersal error to propagate over time, due to advective differences over depth and demonstrate an alternative to laboratory-based behavioral parameterization that encompasses the range of environmental cues that may be acting on planktic organisms.
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