Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with poorly characterized prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.This study characterized HSV-2 epidemiology in MENA. HSV-2 reports were systematically reviewed as guided by the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook and findings were reported following PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and metaregressions were performed to estimate pooled mean outcome measures and to assess predictors of HSV-2 antibody prevalence (seroprevalence), trends in seroprevalence, and between-study heterogeneity. In total, sixty-one overall (133 stratified) HSV-2 seroprevalence measures and two overall (four stratified) proportion measures of HSV-2 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes were extracted from 37 relevant publications. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.6%-6.8%) among general populations, 13.3% (95% CI: 8.6%-18.7%) among intermediate-risk populations, 20.6% (95% CI: 5.3%-42.3%) among female sex workers, and 18.3% (95% CI: 3.9%-39.4%) among male sex workers. Compared to Fertile Crescent countries, seroprevalence was 3.39-fold (95% CI: 1.86-6.20) and 3.90-fold (95% CI:1.78-8.57) higher in Maghreb and Horn of Africa countries, respectively. Compared to studies published before 2010, seroprevalence was 1.73-fold (95% CI: 1.00-2.99) higher in studies published after 2015. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-2 detection in genital herpes was 73.8% (95% CI: 42.2%-95.9%). In conclusion, MENA has a lower HSV-2 seroprevalence than other world regions. Yet, 1 in 20 adults is chronically infected, despite conservative prevailing sexual norms. Seroprevalence may also be increasing, unlike other world regions. Findings support the need for expansion of surveillance and monitoring of HSV-2 infection in MENA.
AimsTo predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.MethodsA deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20–79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.ResultsAll intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8–46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.ConclusionsImplementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.
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