Competing risks endpoints are frequently encountered in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation where patients are exposed to relapse and treatment-related mortality. Both cause-specific hazards models and direct models for the cumulative incidence functions have been used for analyzing such competing risks endpoints. For both approaches, the popular models are of a proportional hazards type. Such models have been used for studying prognostic factors in acute and chronic leukemias. We argue that a complete understanding of the event dynamics requires that both hazards and cumulative incidence be analyzed side-by-side, and that this is generally the most rigorous scientific approach to analyzing competing risks data. That is, understanding the effects of covariates on cause-specific hazard and cumulative incidence functions go hand in hand. A case study illustrates our proposal.

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Women of childbearing age are often affected with psychotic disorders, requiring the use of antipsychotic medication during pregnancy. In the present study, we prospectively followed the pregnancies of 561 women exposed to second-generation antipsychotic agents (SGAs; study cohort) and compared these to 284 pregnant women exposed to first-generation antipsychotic agents (FGAs; comparison cohort I) and to 1122 pregnant women using drugs known as not harmful to the unborn (comparison cohort II). Subjects were enrolled through the Institute's consultation service. Major malformation rates of SGA exposed were higher compared to comparison cohort II (adjusted odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-3.91), possibly reflecting a detection bias concerning atrial and ventricular septal defects. Postnatal disorders occurred significantly more often in infants prenatally exposed to SGAs (15.6%) and FGAs (21.6%) compared to 4.2% of comparison cohort II. Cumulative incidences of elective terminations of pregnancy were significantly higher in both the study cohort (17%) and comparison cohort I (21%) compared to comparison cohort II (3%), whereas the rates of spontaneous abortions did not differ. The numbers of stillbirths and neonatal deaths were within the reference range. Preterm birth and low birth weight were more common in infants exposed to FGAs. To conclude, our findings did not reveal a major teratogenic risk for SGAs, making the better studied drugs of this group a treatment option during pregnancy. Because neonates exposed to SGAs or FGAs in the last gestational week are at higher risk of postnatal disorders, delivery should be planned in clinics with neonatal intensive care units.

The proposed boosting approach is implemented in the R package CoxBoost and prediction error estimation in the package peperr, both available from CRAN.