There is a growing body of literature about the impacts of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton in developing countries. While many studies show remarkable benefits for farmers, there are also reports that question these results. Most previous studies consider impacts in deterministic terms, neglecting existing variability. Here we explain the main factors influencing the agronomic and economic outcomes. Apart from differences in pest pressure and patterns of pesticide use, germplasm effects can play an important role. Theoretical arguments are supported by empirical evidence from India. Better understanding of impact variability can help explain some of the paradoxes in the recent controversy over genetically modified crops.B acillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton, which provides resistance to several bollworm species, has been commercialized in a number of countries, including the United States, Australia, China, Mexico, Argentina, South Africa, and India. Over the last few years, the technology spread rapidly among large and small farms (Food and Agriculture Organization). Several studies carried out in different developing countries show that farmers who have adopted Bt cotton experience remarkable pesticide savings and higher effective yields (Pray et al.; Morse, Bennett, and Ismael; Bennett et al. 2004b; Thirtle et al.; Traxler et al.; Qaim and de Janvry; Qaim and Matuschke). Yet there are also reports claiming genetically modified (GM) crops in general and Bt cotton in particular, are unsuitable for developing Matin Qaim is a professor in the
In India, cotton is mainly grown on relatively small farms with less than 10 acres 16 . Bt cotton was officially commercialized for the first time in 2002, and since then adoption rates have been increasing rapidly: in 2007, already 66% of the total Indian cotton area was under Bt technology. Plot level data that we collected over several years from randomly selected cotton producers in four states confirms the direct effects of the technology reported in previous studies 8,17,18 (Table 1) In order to analyze the broader socioeconomic effects, we selected one village where we collected much more comprehensive data on household characteristics and interactions across various markets. The study village, Kanzara, is located in Akola district of Maharashtra, the state with the largest area under cotton in India. Kanzara can be considered a typical setting for smallholder cotton production in the semi-arid tropics 19 . Interviews with all village households and institutions were conducted in 2004, capturing all household economic activities and transactions for the 12-months period 2
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