The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged urbanization around 4,500 BP. However, further decline in monsoon precipitation led to conditions adverse to both inundation-and rain-based farming. Contrary to earlier assumptions that a large glacier-fed Himalayan river, identified by some with the mythical Sarasvati, watered the Harappan heartland on the interfluve between the Indus and Ganges basins, we show that only monsoonal-fed rivers were active there during the Holocene. As the monsoon weakened, monsoonal rivers gradually dried or became seasonal, affecting habitability along their courses. Hydroclimatic stress increased the vulnerability of agricultural production supporting Harappan urbanism, leading to settlement downsizing, diversification of crops, and a drastic increase in settlements in the moister monsoon regions of the upper Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.Indus Valley | floods | droughts | climate change | archaeology T he Harappan or Indus Civilization (1-8) developed at the arid outer edge of the monsoonal rain belt (9, Fig. 1) and largely depended on river water for agriculture (10). The Harappans settled the Indus plain over a territory larger than the contemporary extent of Egypt and Mesopotamia combined (Figs. 2 and 3). Between the Indus and Ganges watersheds, a now largely defunct smaller drainage system, the Ghaggar-Hakra, was also heavily populated during Harappan times (4, 5). Controlled by the Indian monsoon and the melting of Himalayan snow and glaciers (2,11,12), the highly variable hydrologic regime, with recurring droughts and floods, must have been a critical concern for Harappans, as it is today for almost a billion people living on the Indo-Gangetic Plain in Pakistan, northern India, and Bangladesh. In such challenging environmental conditions, both the development and the decline of the Harappan remain equally puzzling (13). We investigate how climate change affected this civilization by focusing on fluvial morphodynamics, which constitutes a critical gap in our current understanding of the Harappan in the way it affects habitability and human settlement patterns near rivers in...

Climate is one of the principal controls setting rates of continental erosion. Here we present the results of a provenance analysis of Holocene sediments from the Indus delta in order to assess climatic controls on erosion over millennial time scales. Bulk sediment Nd isotope analysis reveals a number of changes during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene (at 14-20, 11-12 and 8-9 ka) away from erosion of the Karakoram and toward more sediment fl ux from the Himalaya. Radiometric Ar-Ar dating of muscovite and U-Pb dating of zircon sand grains indicate that the Lesser Himalaya eroded relatively more strongly than the Greater Himalaya as global climate warmed and the summer monsoon intensifi ed after 14 ka. Monsoon rains appear to be the primary force controlling erosion across the western Himalaya, at least over millennial time scales. This variation is preserved with no apparent lag in sediments from the delta, but not in the deep Arabian Sea, due to sediment buffering on the continental shelf. RESULTSIn contrast to the ~1 ε Nd unit shift seen between modern and glacial sediments in the Bengal Fan (Colin et al., 1999), we use a moving average plot (Fig. 2B) to show that ε Nd changed from ~11 to ~12 between sedi-

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We employed X-ray diffraction methods to quantify clay mineral assemblages in the Indus Delta and flood plains since ~ 14 ka, spanning a period of strong climatic change. Assemblages are dominated by smectite and illite, with minor chlorite and kaolinite. Delta sediments integrate clays from across the basin and show increasing smectite input between 13 and 7.5 ka, indicating stronger chemical weathering as the summer monsoon intensified. Changes in clay mineralogy postdate changes in climate by 5–3 ka, reflecting the time needed for new clay minerals to form and be transported to the delta. Samples from the flood plains in Punjab show evidence for increased chemical weathering towards the top of the sections (6–≪ 4 ka), counter to the trend in the delta, at a time of monsoon weakening. Clay mineral assemblages within sandy flood-plain sediment have higher smectite/(illite + chlorite) values than interbedded mudstones, suggestive of either stronger weathering or more sediment reworking since the Mid Holocene. We show that marine records are not always good proxies for weathering across the entire flood plain. Nonetheless, the delta record likely represents the most reliable record of basin-wide weathering response to climate change.

The Indus Delta is constructed of sediment eroded from the western Himalaya and since 20 ka has been subjected to strong variations in monsoon intensity. Provenance changes rapidly at 12-8 ka, although bulk and heavy mineral content remains relatively unchanged. Bulk sediment analyses shows more negative 1 Nd and higher 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values, peaking around 8 -9 ka. Apatite fission track ages and biotite Ar-Ar ages show younger grains ages at 8-9 ka compared to at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At the same time d 13 C climbs from -23 to -20‰, suggestive of a shift from terrestrial to more marine organic carbon as Early Holocene sea level rose. U-Pb zircon ages suggest enhanced erosion of the Lesser Himalaya and a relative reduction in erosion from the Transhimalaya and Karakoram since the LGM. The shift in erosion to the south correlates with those regions now affected by the heaviest summer monsoon rains. The focused erosion along the southern edge of Tibet required by current tectonic models for the Greater Himalaya would be impossible to achieve without a strong summer monsoon. Our work supports the idea that although long-term monsoon strengthening is caused by uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, monsoon-driven erosion controls Himalayan tectonic evolution.Supplementary material: A table of the population breakdown for zircons in sands and the predicted Nd isotope composition of sediments based on the zircons compared to the measured whole rock value is available at