In a context of increased land and natural resources scarcity, the possibilities for local authorities and stakeholders of anticipating evolutions or testing the impact of envisaged developments through scenario simulation are new challenges. PRECOS's approach integrates data pertaining to the fields of water and soil resources, agronomy, urbanization, land use and infrastructure etc. It is complemented by a socio-economic and regulatory analysis of the territory illustrating its constraints and stakes. A modular architecture articulates modeling software and spatial and temporal representations tools. It produces indicators in three core domains: soil degradation, water and soil resources and agricultural production. As a territory representative of numerous situations of the Mediterranean Basin (urban pressures, overconsumption of spaces, degradation of the milieus), a demonstration in the Crau's area (Southeast of France) has allowed to validate a prototype of the approach and to test its feasibility in a real life situation. Results on the Crau area have shown that, since the beginning of the 16th century, irrigated grasslands are the cornerstones of the anthropic-system, illustrating how successfully men's multi-secular efforts have maintained a balance between environment and local development. But today the ecosystem services are jeopardized firstly by urban sprawl and secondly by climate change. Pre-diagnosis in regions of Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and Valencia (Spain) show that local end-users and policy-makers are interested by this approach. The modularity of indicator calculations and the availability of geo-databases indicate that PRECOS may be up scaled in other socio-economic contexts.
When implementing remediation programs to mitigate diffuse-source contamination of aquifers, tools are required to anticipate if the measures are sufficient to meet groundwater quality objectives and, if so, in what time frame. Transfer function methods are an attractive approach, as they are easier to implement than numerical groundwater models. However, transfer function approaches as commonly applied in environmental tracer studies are limited to a homogenous input of solute across the catchment area and a unique transfer compartment. The objective of this study was to develop and test an original approach suitable for the transfer of spatially varying inputs across multiple compartments (e.g. unsaturated and saturated zone). The method makes use of a double convolution equation accounting for transfer across two compartments separately. The modified transfer function approach was applied to the Wohlenschwil aquifer (Switzerland), using a formulation of the exponential model of solute transfer for application to subareas of aquifer catchments. A minimum of information was required: (1) delimitation of the capture zone of the outlet of interest; (2) spatial distribution of historical and future pollution input within the capture zone; (3) contribution of each subarea of the recharge zone to the flow at the outlet; (4) transfer functions of the pollutant in the aquifer. A good fit to historical nitrate concentrations at the pumping well was obtained. This suggests that the modified transfer function approach is suitable to explore the effect of environmental projects on groundwater concentration trends, especially at an early screening stage.
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