Today, international travel and global freight transportation are increasing and have a direct influence on the introduction and establishment of non-native mosquito species as well as on the spread of arthropod (mosquito)-borne diseases inside Europe. One of the mosquito species that has become invasive in many areas is the Asian rock pool or bush mosquito Ochlerotatus japonicus japonicus (synonyms: Aedes japonicus japonicus or Hulecoeteomyia japonica japonica). This species was detected in Germany in 2008 for the first time. Until today, three different Oc. j. japonicus populations have been documented. Laboratory studies have shown that Oc. j. japonicus can act as a vector for a variety of disease agents. Thus, the knowledge on its current distribution is essential for different measurements. In the present study, ecological niche models were used to estimate the potential distribution of Oc. j. japonicus in Germany. The aim was to detect areas within Germany that could potentially function as habitats for this species. According to our model, areas in western, southern, and central Germany offer suitable conditions for the mosquito and may therefore be at risk for an invasion of the species. We strongly suggest that those areas should be monitored more intensively in the future. For this purpose, it would also be essential to search for possible dispersal routes as well as for natural barriers.

Climatic changes raise the risk of re-emergence of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks globally. These viruses are transmitted by arthropod vectors, often mosquitoes. Due to increasing worldwide trade and tourism, these vector species are often accidentally introduced into many countries beyond their former distribution range. Aedes albopictus, a well-known disease vector, was detected for the first time in Germany in 2007, but seems to have failed establishment until today. However, the species is known to occur in other temperate regions and a risk for establishment in Germany remains, especially in the face of predicted climate change. Thus, the goal of the study was to estimate the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in Germany. We used ecological niche modeling in order to estimate the potential habitat suitability for this species under current and projected future climatic conditions. According to our model, there are already two areas in western and southern Germany that appear suitable for Ae. albopictus under current climatic conditions. One of these areas lies in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the other in North-Rhine Westphalia in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, projections under future climatic conditions show an increase of the modeled habitat suitability throughout Germany. Ae. albopictus is supposed to be better acclimated to colder temperatures than other tropical vectors and thus, might become, triggered by climate change, a serious threat to public health in Germany. Our modeling results can help optimizing the design of monitoring programs currently in place in Germany.