; for the PRONIA Consortium IMPORTANCE Social and occupational impairments contribute to the burden of psychosis and depression. There is a need for risk stratification tools to inform personalized functional-disability preventive strategies for individuals in at-risk and early phases of these illnesses. OBJECTIVE To determine whether predictors associated with social and role functioning can be identified in patients in clinical high-risk (CHR) states for psychosis or with recent-onset depression (ROD) using clinical, imaging-based, and combined machine learning; assess the geographic, transdiagnostic, and prognostic generalizability of machine learning and compare it with human prognostication; and explore sequential prognosis encompassing clinical and combined machine learning. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This multisite naturalistic study followed up patients in CHR states, with ROD, and with recent-onset psychosis, and healthy control participants for 18 months in 7 academic early-recognition services in 5 European countries. Participants were recruited between February 2014 and May 2016, and data were analyzed from April 2017 to January 2018. AIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Performance and generalizability of prognostic models. RESULTS A total of 116 individuals in CHR states (mean [SD] age, 24.0 [5.1] years; 58 [50.0%] female) and 120 patients with ROD (mean [SD] age, 26.1 [6.1] years; 65 [54.2%] female) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 329 (142) days. Machine learning predicted the 1-year social-functioning outcomes with a balanced accuracy of 76.9% of patients in CHR states and 66.2% of patients with ROD using clinical baseline data. Balanced accuracy in models using structural neuroimaging was 76.2% in patients in CHR states and 65.0% in patients with ROD, and in combined models, it was 82.7% for CHR states and 70.3% for ROD. Lower functioning before study entry was a transdiagnostic predictor. Medial prefrontal and temporo-parietooccipital gray matter volume (GMV) reductions and cerebellar and dorsolateral prefrontal GMV increments had predictive value in the CHR group; reduced mediotemporal and increased prefrontal-perisylvian GMV had predictive value in patients with ROD. Poor prognoses were associated with increased risk of psychotic, depressive, and anxiety disorders at follow-up in patients in the CHR state but not ones with ROD. Machine learning outperformed expert prognostication. Adding neuroimaging machine learning to clinical machine learning provided a 1.9-fold increase of prognostic certainty in uncertain cases of patients in CHR states, and a 10.5-fold increase of prognostic certainty for patients with ROD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Precision medicine tools could augment effective therapeutic strategies aiming at the prevention of social functioning impairments in patients with CHR states or with ROD.

Anatomical structures and mechanisms linking genes to neuropsychiatric disorders are not deciphered. Reciprocal copy number variants at the 16p11.2 BP4-BP5 locus offer a unique opportunity to study the intermediate phenotypes in carriers at high risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or schizophrenia (SZ). We investigated the variation in brain anatomy in 16p11.2 deletion and duplication carriers. Beyond gene dosage effects on global brain metrics, we show that the number of genomic copies negatively correlated to the gray matter volume and white matter tissue properties in cortico-subcortical regions implicated in reward, language and social cognition. Despite the near absence of ASD or SZ diagnoses in our 16p11.2 cohort, the pattern of brain anatomy changes in carriers spatially overlaps with the well-established structural abnormalities in ASD and SZ. Using measures of peripheral mRNA levels, we confirm our genomic copy number findings. This combined molecular, neuroimaging and clinical approach, applied to larger datasets, will help interpret the relative contributions of genes to neuropsychiatric conditions by measuring their effect on local brain anatomy.

This prognostic study evaluates whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with clinical high-risk syndromes or recent-onset depression by multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging, and polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia.

Evidence from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies shows that healthy aging is associated with profound changes in cortical and subcortical brain structures. The reliable delineation of cortex and basal ganglia using automated computational anatomy methods based on T1-weighted images remains challenging, which results in controversies in the literature. In this study we use quantitative MRI (qMRI) to gain an insight into the microstructural mechanisms underlying tissue ageing and look for potential interactions between ageing and brain tissue properties to assess their impact on automated tissue classification. To this end we acquired maps of longitudinal relaxation rate R1, effective transverse relaxation rate R2* and magnetization transfer – MT, from healthy subjects (n = 96, aged 21–88 years) using a well-established multi-parameter mapping qMRI protocol. Within the framework of voxel-based quantification we find higher grey matter volume in basal ganglia, cerebellar dentate and prefrontal cortex when tissue classification is based on MT maps compared with T1 maps. These discrepancies between grey matter volume estimates can be attributed to R2* - a surrogate marker of iron concentration, and further modulation by an interaction between R2* and age, both in cortical and subcortical areas. We interpret our findings as direct evidence for the impact of ageing-related brain tissue property changes on automated tissue classification of brain structures using SPM12. Computational anatomy studies of ageing and neurodegeneration should acknowledge these effects, particularly when inferring about underlying pathophysiology from regional cortex and basal ganglia volume changes.