Identifying brain biomarkers of disease risk is a growing priority in neuroscience. The ability to identify meaningful biomarkers is limited by measurement reliability; unreliable measures are unsuitable for predicting clinical outcomes. Measuring brain activity using task functional MRI (fMRI) is a major focus of biomarker development; however, the reliability of task fMRI has not been systematically evaluated. We present converging evidence demonstrating poor reliability of task-fMRI measures. First, a meta-analysis of 90 experiments ( N = 1,008) revealed poor overall reliability—mean intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = .397. Second, the test-retest reliabilities of activity in a priori regions of interest across 11 common fMRI tasks collected by the Human Connectome Project ( N = 45) and the Dunedin Study ( N = 20) were poor (ICCs = .067–.485). Collectively, these findings demonstrate that common task-fMRI measures are not currently suitable for brain biomarker discovery or for individual-differences research. We review how this state of affairs came to be and highlight avenues for improving task-fMRI reliability.

12The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet we know little about the specific genetic loci influencing human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants, including structural variants, impacting cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain MRI data from 51,662 individuals. We analysed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specialisations. We identified 255 nominally significant loci (P ≤ 5 x 10 -8 ); 199 survived multiple testing correction (P ≤ 8.3 x 10 -10 ; 187 surface area; 12 thickness). We found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci impacting regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signalling pathways, known to influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson's disease, insomnia, depression and ADHD.One Sentence Summary: Common genetic variation is associated with inter-individual variation in the structure of the human cortex, both globally and within specific regions, and is shared with genetic risk factors for some neuropsychiatric disorders.The human cerebral cortex is the outer grey matter layer of the brain, which is implicated in multiple aspects of higher cognitive function. Its distinct folding pattern is characterised by convex (gyral) and concave (sulcal) regions. Computational brain mapping approaches use the consistent folding patterns across individual cortices to label brain regions(1). During fetal development excitatory neurons, the predominant neuronal cell-type in the cortex, are generated from neural progenitor cells in the developing germinal zone(2). The radial unit hypothesis(3) posits that the expansion of cortical surface area (SA) is driven by the proliferation of these neural progenitor cells, whereas thickness (TH) is determined by the number of neurogenic divisions. Variation in global and regional measures of cortical SA and TH are associated with neuropsychiatric disorders and psychological traits(4) ( Table S1). Twin and family-based brain imaging studies show that SA and TH measurements are highly heritable and are largely influenced by independent genetic factors(5). Despite extensive studies of genes impacting cortical structure in model organisms (6), our current understanding of genetic variation impacting human cortical size and patterning is limited to rare, highly penetrant variants (7,8). These variants often disrupt cortical development, leading to altered post-natal structure. However, little is known about how common genetic variants impact human cortical SA and TH.To address this, we conducted genome-wide association meta-analyses of cortical SA and TH measures in 51,662 individuals from 60 cohorts from around the world (Tables S2-S4). Cortical measures were extracted from structural brain MRI scan...

The cerebral cortex underlies our complex cognitive capabilities, yet little is known about the specific genetic loci that influence human cortical structure. To identify genetic variants that affect cortical structure, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of brain magnetic resonance imaging data from 51,665 individuals. We analyzed the surface area and average thickness of the whole cortex and 34 regions with known functional specializations. We identified 199 significant loci and found significant enrichment for loci influencing total surface area within regulatory elements that are active during prenatal cortical development, supporting the radial unit hypothesis. Loci that affect regional surface area cluster near genes in Wnt signaling pathways, which influence progenitor expansion and areal identity. Variation in cortical structure is genetically correlated with cognitive function, Parkinson’s disease, insomnia, depression, neuroticism, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Intrinsic connectivity, measured using resting-state fMRI, has emerged as a fundamental tool in the study of the human brain. However, due to practical limitations, many studies do not collect enough resting-state data to generate reliable measures of intrinsic connectivity necessary for studying individual differences. Here we present general functional connectivity (GFC) as a method for leveraging shared features across resting-state and task fMRI and demonstrate in the Human Connectome Project and the Dunedin Study that GFC offers better test-retest reliability than intrinsic connectivity estimated from the same amount of resting-state data alone. Furthermore, at equivalent scan lengths, GFC displayed higher estimates of heritability than resting-state functional connectivity. We also found that predictions of cognitive ability from GFC generalized across datasets, performing as well or better than resting-state or task data alone. Collectively, our work suggests that GFC can improve the reliability of intrinsic connectivity estimates in existing datasets and, subsequently, the opportunity to identify meaningful correlates of individual differences in behavior. Given that task and resting-state data are often collected together, many researchers can immediately derive more reliable measures of intrinsic connectivity through the adoption of GFC rather than solely using resting-state data. Moreover, by better capturing heritable variation in intrinsic connectivity, GFC represents a novel endophenotype with broad applications in clinical neuroscience and biomarker discovery.

Summary We all experience a host of common life stressors such as the death of a family member, medical illness, and financial uncertainty. While most of us are resilient to such stressors, continuing to function normally, for a subset of individuals, experiencing these stressors increases the likelihood of developing treatment-resistant, chronic psychological problems, including depression and anxiety. It is thus paramount to identify predictive markers of risk, particularly those reflecting fundamental biological processes that can be targets for intervention and prevention. Using data from a longitudinal study of 340 healthy young adults, we demonstrate that individual differences in threat-related amygdala reactivity predict psychological vulnerability to life stress occurring as much as 1 to 4 years later. These results highlight a readily assayed biomarker, threat-related amygdala reactivity, which predicts psychological vulnerability to commonly experienced stressors and represents a discrete target for intervention and prevention.