Aim A third of all modern (after 1500) mammal extinctions (24/77) are Australian species. These extinctions have been restricted to southern Australia, predominantly in species of ‘critical weight range’ (35–5500 g) in drier climate zones. Introduced red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) that prey on species in this range are often blamed. A new wave of declines is now affecting a globally significant proportion of marsupial species (19 species) in the fox‐free northern tropics. We aim to test plausible causes of recent declines in range and determine if mechanisms differ between current tropical declines and past declines, which were in southern (non‐tropical) regions. Location Australian continent Methods We used multiple regression and random forest models to analyse traits that were associated with declines in species range, and compare variables associated with past extinctions in the southern zones with current tropical (northern) declines. Results The same two key variables, body mass and habitat structure, were associated with proportion‐of‐decline in range throughout the continent, but the form of relationships differs with latitude. In the south, medium‐sized species in open habitats of lower rainfall were most likely to decline. In the tropics, small species that occupy open vegetation with moderate rainfall (savanna) are now experiencing the most severe declines. Throughout the continent, large‐bodied species and those in structurally complex habitats (rainforest) are secure. Main conclusions Our results indicate that there is no mid‐sized ‘critical weight range’ in the north. Because foxes are absent from the tropics, we suggest that northern Australian marsupial declines are associated with predation by feral cats (Felis catus) exacerbated by reduced ground level vegetation in non‐rainforest habitats. To test this, we recommend experiments to remove cats from some locations where tropical mammals are threatened. Our results show that comparative analysis can help to diagnose potential causes of multi‐species decline.

Introduction: Recent studies at sites in northern Australia have reported severe and rapid decline of several native mammal species, notwithstanding an environmental context (small human population size, limited habitat loss, substantial reservation extent) that should provide relative conservation security. All of the more speciose taxonomic groups of mammals in northern Australia have some species for which their conservation status has been assessed as threatened, with 53 % of dasyurid, 47 % of macropod and potoroid, 33 % of bandicoot and bilby, 33 % of possum, 30 % of rodent, and 24 % of bat species being assessed as extinct, threatened or near threatened. However, the geographical extent and timing of declines, and their causes, remain poorly resolved, limiting the application of remedial management actions. Material and methods:Focusing on the tropical savannas of northern Australia, this paper reviews disparate recent and ongoing studies that provide information on population trends across a broader geographic scope than the previously reported sites, and examines the conservation status and trends for mammal groups (bats, macropods) not well sampled in previous monitoring studies. It describes some diverse approaches of studies seeking to document conservation status and trends, and of the factors that may be contributing to observed patterns of decline.170 THERYA Vol.6(1):169-225 DECLINING MAMMALS OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA Results and Discussion: Current trends and potential causal factors for declines. The studies reported demonstrate that the extent and timing of impacts and threats have been variable across the region, although there is a general gradational pattern of earlier and more severe decline from inland lower rainfall areas to higher rainfall coastal regions. Some small isolated areas appear to have retained their mammal species, as have many islands which remain critical refuges. There is now some compelling evidence that predation by feral cats is implicated in the observed decline, with those impacts likely to be exacerbated by prevailing fire regimes (frequent, extensive and intense fire), by reduction in ground vegetation cover due to livestock and, in some areas, by 'control' of dingoes. However the impacts of dingoes may be complex, and are not yet well resolved in this area. The relative impacts of these individual factors vary spatially (with most severe impacts in higher rainfall and more rugged areas) and between different mammal species, with some species responding idiosyncratically: the most notable example is the rapid decline of the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) due to poisoning by the introduced cane toad (Rhinella marina), which continues to spread extensively across northern Australia. The impact of disease, if any, remains unresolved. Conservation Management Responses.Recovery of the native mammal fauna may be impossible in some areas. However, there are now examples of rapid recovery following threat management. Priority conservation actions include: enhanced biosecur...

Fear of predation is a universal motivator. Because predators hunt using stealth and surprise, there is a widespread ability among prey to assess risk from chemical information -scents -in their environment. Consequently, scents often act as particularly strong modulators of memory and emotions. Recent advances in ecological research and analytical technology are leading to novel ways to use this chemical information to create effective attractants, repellents and anti-anxiolytic compounds for wildlife managers, conservation biologists and health practitioners. However, there is extensive variation in the design, results, and interpretation of studies of olfactory-based risk discrimination. To understand the highly variable literature in this area, we adopt a multi-disciplinary approach and synthesize the latest findings from neurobiology, chemical ecology, and ethology to propose a contemporary framework that accounts for such disparate factors as the time-limited stability of chemicals, highly canalized mechanisms that influence prey responses, and the context within which these scents are detected (e.g. availability of alternative resources, perceived shelter, and ambient physical parameters). This framework helps to account for the wide range of reported responses by prey to predator scents, and explains, paradoxically, how the same individual predator scent can be interpreted as either safe or dangerous to a prey animal depending on how, when and where the cue was deposited. We provide a hypothetical example to illustrate the most common factors that influence how a predator scent (from dingoes, Canis dingo) may both attract and repel the same target organism (kangaroos, Macropus spp.). This framework identifies the catalysts that enable dynamic scents, odours or odorants to be used as attractants as well as deterrents. Because effective scent tools often relate to traumatic memories (fear and/or anxiety) that cause future avoidance, this information may also guide the development of appeasement, enrichment and anti-anxiolytic compounds, and help explain the observed variation in post-traumatic-related behaviours (including post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD) among diverse terrestrial taxa, including humans.

Summary1. Small mammal species are declining across northern Australia. Predation by feral cats Felis sylvestris catus is one hypothesised cause. Most evidence of cat impacts on native prey comes from islands, where cat densities are often high, but cats typically occur at low densities on mainland Australia. 2. We conducted a field experiment to measure the effect of predation by low-density cat populations on the demography of a native small mammal. We established two 12Á5-ha enclosures in tropical savanna in the Northern Territory. Each enclosure was divided in half, with cats allowed access to one half but not the other. We introduced about 20 individuals of a native rodent, Rattus villosissimus, into each of the four compartments (two enclosures 9 two predator-access treatments). We monitored rat demography by mark-recapture analysis and radiotracking, and predator incursions by camera surveillance and track and scat searches. 3. Rat populations persisted over the duration of the study (18 months) in the predatorproof treatment, where we detected no predator incursions, but declined to extinction in both predator-accessible compartments. In one case, cat incursions were frequently detected and the rat population was rapidly extirpated (<3 months); in the other, cat incursions were infrequent, and the population declined more gradually (c. 16 months) due to low recruitment. We detected no incursions by dingoes Canis dingo, the other mammalian predator in the area. 4. Synthesis and applications. This is the first study to provide direct evidence that cats are capable of extirpating small mammals in a continental setting, in spite of their low population densities. This finding supports the hypothesis that predation by feral cats is contributing to declines of small mammals in northern Australia. The conservation management of native small mammals in northern Australia may require intensive control of cat populations, including large cat-free enclosures.