A major component of climate change is an increase in temperature and precipitation variability. Over the last few decades, an increase in the frequency of extremely warm temperatures and drought severity has been observed across Europe. These warmer and drier conditions may reduce productivity and trigger compositional shifts in forest communities. However, we still lack a robust, biogeographical characterization of the negative impacts of climate extremes, such as droughts on forests. In this context, we investigated the impact of the 2017 summer drought on European forests. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used as a proxy of forest productivity and was related to the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, which accounts for the temperature effects of the climate water balance. The spatial pattern of NDVI reduction in 2017 was largely driven by the extremely warm summer for parts of the central and eastern Mediterranean Basin (Italian and Balkan Peninsulas). The vulnerability to the 2017 summer drought was heterogeneously distributed over Europe, and topographic factors buffered some of the negative impacts. Mediterranean forests dominated by oak species were the most negatively impacted, whereas Pinus pinaster was the most resilient species. The impact of drought on the NDVI decreased at high elevations and mainly on east and north‐east facing slopes. We illustrate how an adequate characterization of the coupling between climate conditions and forest productivity (NDVI) allows the determination of the most vulnerable areas to drought. This approach could be widely used for other extreme climate events and when considering other spatially resolved proxies of forest growth and health.

The future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentration depends on the development of the terrestrial carbon sink, which in turn is influenced by forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions. An in‐depth understanding of model sensitivities and uncertainties in non‐steady‐state conditions is necessary for reliable and robust projections of forest development and under scenarios of global warming and CO2 enrichment. Here, we systematically assessed if a biogeochemical process‐based model (3D‐CMCC‐CNR), which embeds similarities with many other vegetation models, applied in simulating net primary productivity (NPP) and standing woody biomass (SWB), maintained a consistent sensitivity to its 55 input parameters through time, during forest ageing and structuring as well as under climate change scenarios. Overall, the model applied at three contrasting European forests showed low sensitivity to the majority of its parameters. Interestingly, model sensitivity to parameters varied through the course of >100 yr of simulations. In particular, the model showed a large responsiveness to the allometric parameters used for initialize forest carbon and nitrogen pools early in forest simulation (i.e., for NPP up to ~37%, 256 g C·m−2·yr−1 and for SWB up to ~90%, 65 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation), with this sensitivity decreasing sharply during forest development. At medium to longer time scales, and under climate change scenarios, the model became increasingly more sensitive to additional and/or different parameters controlling biomass accumulation and autotrophic respiration (i.e., for NPP up to ~30%, 167 g C·m−2·yr−1 and for SWB up to ~24%, 64 Mg C/ha, when compared to standard simulation). Interestingly, model outputs were shown to be more sensitive to parameters and processes controlling stand development rather than to climate change (i.e., warming and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration) itself although model sensitivities were generally higher under climate change scenarios. Our results suggest the need for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that cover multiple temporal scales along forest developmental stages to better assess the potential of future forests to act as a global terrestrial carbon sink.

Aim The aim was to decipher Europe‐wide spatio‐temporal patterns of forest growth dynamics and their associations with carbon isotope fractionation processes inferred from tree rings as modulated by climate warming. Location Europe and North Africa (30‒70° N, 10° W‒35° E). Time period 1901‒2003. Major taxa studied Temperate and Euro‐Siberian trees. Methods We characterize changes in the relationship between tree growth and carbon isotope fractionation over the 20th century using a European network consisting of 20 site chronologies. Using indexed tree‐ring widths (TRWi), we assess shifts in the temporal coherence of radial growth across sites (synchrony) for five forest ecosystems (Atlantic, boreal, cold continental, Mediterranean and temperate). We also examine whether TRWi shows variable coupling with leaf‐level gas exchange, inferred from indexed carbon isotope discrimination of tree‐ring cellulose (Δ13Ci). Results We find spatial autocorrelation for TRWi and Δ13Ci extending over a maximum of 1,000 km among forest stands. However, growth synchrony is not uniform across Europe, but increases along a latitudinal gradient concurrent with decreasing temperature and evapotranspiration. Latitudinal relationships between TRWi and Δ13Ci (changing from negative to positive southwards) point to drought impairing carbon uptake via stomatal regulation for water saving occurring at forests below 60° N in continental Europe. An increase in forest growth synchrony over the 20th century together with increasingly positive relationships between TRWi and Δ13Ci indicate intensifying impacts of drought on tree performance. These effects are noticeable in drought‐prone biomes (Mediterranean, temperate and cold continental). Main conclusions At the turn of this century, convergence in growth synchrony across European forest ecosystems is coupled with coordinated warming‐induced effects of drought on leaf physiology and tree growth spreading northwards. Such a tendency towards exacerbated moisture‐sensitive growth and physiology could override positive effects of enhanced leaf intercellular CO2 concentrations, possibly resulting in Europe‐wide declines of forest carbon gain in the coming decades.

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